The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that it is fully optimistic about shipping investment opportunities. 1. Oil transportation: Inventory restocking+shift of Iranian oil to a compliant market+expansion of storage and import decentralization form the three major demand-side increases. The elimination of old capacity on the supply side is expected to hedge against new ship deliveries. Changjin Merchant Marine's VLCC is a pattern logic that cannot be ignored in the market. 2. Dispersion: The supply growth rate is limited, with on-hand orders for bulk carriers of about 14%, the lowest among the three major shipping industries; demand-side production in Simandou lengthens transportation distances, catalyzing subsequent El Niño weather or peak season freight rates. 3. Transportation: Transportation supply and demand are expected to maintain a tight balance during the year. CCFI accelerates upward due to factors such as the peak season in July-August, and port congestion continues to cause disturbances. The profit of shipping companies is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, and dividend rates are attractive.
The main views of Huachuang Securities are as follows:
1. Oil transportation: Freight rates have risen to historic highs, and CMB's Q2 performance has reached a record high
1. Market review: Since this year, against the backdrop of tight supply and demand in the oil transportation market, factors such as increased industry concentration, increased compliance market demand, and sudden geopolitical events have catalyzed a sharp rise in freight rates to historically high levels. In the first half of 2026, the average freight rates for VLCC US Bay and West Africa routes were 10.6 and 113,000 US dollars/day, respectively, +184% compared with the same period last year; freight rates for small to medium crude oil tankers and refined oil tankers also increased in tanker. 2. Performance: 2026H1 net profit: China Merchants Shipping: 6.96 billion yuan, +228% year over year; COSCO Haineng 4.54 billion, +143% year over year; China Merchants CNPC 810 million, +42.4% year over year. 2026Q2 net profit to mother: China Merchants Shipping: 4.2 billion yuan, +233% YoY, +51.8% month-on-month; COSCO Haineng 2.37 billion, +104% YoY, +9.1% month-on-month; CMB 380 million, +33.1% YoY, -12% month-on-month. Due to strong performance on the freight side, the performance of the three oil transportation companies achieved a year-on-year high increase in the first half of the year, and net profit from China Merchants Shipping and COSCO Marine Energy reached a record high in 2026Q2. China Merchants Shipping's oil transportation business performed the best. COSCO Marine's Q2 performance was dragged down due to the capacity of 8 ships trapped in the bay; China Merchants South Oil's performance increase was weaker than that of the previous two due to the lower freight rate increase of the MR Eastern route than VLCC.
2. Distribution: The boom exceeded expectations, and performance achieved high growth
1. Market review: 2026H1 BDI averaged 2,347 points, +82% YoY; 2026Q2 BDI averaged 2,751 points, +87% YoY, +41% YoY. Among them, the BDI index has accelerated upward since April, breaking through 3,000 points in May; on the cargo side, iron ore transportation was supported by demand for long-haul routes, demand for coal transportation was boosted by factors such as the geographical situation, and commodities such as bauxite and grain performed well. 2. Performance: 2026H1: Pacific Shipping's net profit of US$110 million, +310% YoY; Haitong Development's net profit of 520 million yuan, +503% YoY; China Merchants Shipping's bulk cargo business net profit of 1.18 billion yuan, +179% YoY. 2026Q2: Net profit from Haitong Development was 310 million yuan, +1528% year over month, +49% month on month; China Merchants Shipping bulk business net profit of 750 million yuan, +184% year on year, +72% month on month.
3. Transportation: Freight rates changed from weak to strong, and Q2 performance improved significantly
1. Market review: The overall shipping market showed a trend of weakening to strength in the first half of the year. Off-season freight rates were weak at the beginning of the year. After the Middle East conflict in March, deviations and supply chain uncertainty raised freight risk premiums again. Factors such as tariff policy adjustments in May and pre-peak season led to a simultaneous rise in global multi-route freight rates. 2026H1 CCFI averaged 1240 points, -1.3% YoY; Q2CCFI averaged 1,350 points, +16.2% YoY and +19% YoY. 2. Performance: 2026H1 net profit: COSCO Marine Holdings: 13.4 billion yuan, -23.5% year on year; Jinjiang Shipping 750 million, -5.4% year on year; Zhonggu Logistics 1.08 billion, +1.05% year on year; China Merchants Shipping Shipping Division net profit of 580 million yuan, -7.6% year on year. Haifeng International was US$680 million, +7.4% year on year; Dexiang Shipping was US$230 million, +23.3% year over year. 2026Q2 net profit to mother: COSCO Marine Holdings: $7.54 billion, +29% month-on-month; Jinjiang Shipping: $420 million, -5% year-on-year, +24% month-on-month; Zhonggu Logistics: $560 million, +5.9% year-on-month, +5.5% month-on-month; China Merchants Shipping's shipping sector's net profit of $330 million, +12% year-on-month, +30% month-on-month. In line with the freight rate trend, Dexiang Shipping and Zhonggu Logistics are showing more impressive performance growth due to the Middle East/Red Sea route layout; Jinjiang Shipping's Q2 freight rate increase was weaker than that of the main routes, so its performance growth rate was weaker than that of COSCO Marine Control; Haifeng International continued to achieve steady growth with its excellent route layout, efficiency turnover and cost control capabilities.
Risk warning: Spot freight rates fell sharply, demand fell short of expectations, impact of geopolitical events, etc.