According to WooFunai, the Bitcoin price broke through the $81,000 mark, and the core driving force stemmed from a sharp correction in macro interest rate expectations. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME.US) FedWatch tool, the probability that the Fed will raise interest rates this month plummeted to 50% from over 63% the previous week. This easing of expectations directly contributed to a decline in bond yields. Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller clearly expressed support for keeping interest rates unchanged while price pressure abates, further solidifying the basis for a rebound in risky assets.
The cryptocurrency market showed significant differentiation, with Zcash (ZCSH.US) leading the way with a sharp increase of nearly 15% in 24 hours and a cumulative increase of 20% this week. Hyperliquid's Hype and Ripple (XRP) both recorded gains of around 6%, while Ethereum, Binance Coin (BNB), and Dogecoin rose between 4% and 5%, SOLANA (SOLANA) rose nearly 3%, and TRON only rose slightly by 1%. Looking at the 7-day dimension, BTC rose by about 1%, Ethereum and XRP were almost zero, while SOLANA and TRON fell close to 3%.
According to data compiled by WooFunai, Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted $277 million in capital inflows on Thursday, but the flow trend fluctuated over the previous four days, and no continuous buying momentum has yet been formed.
In terms of traditional assets, the MSCI.US (MSCI.US) Asia Pacific Index rose nearly 1%, and AllCountryWorldIndex rose for the third day in a row. The US dollar stabilized at a low in May, and the Asian currency index rebounded to October 2024 levels. The yen rose about 2% on Thursday, offsetting the previous month's decline. Traders bet on the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and potential intervention. The exchange rate remained at 156.35 yen per dollar, which had previously hit 155.30 yen.
Although a stronger yen usually weakens the liquidity of arbitrage transactions, Bitcoin's gains have not been significantly dampened.
The key variable for the rest of the week is whether the ETF can maintain a net inflow of capital. This will be a core indicator for judging whether institutions view current interest rate changes as a sustainable trend. If capital continues to pour in, it will confirm that macro-easing expectations have been transformed into substantial allocation actions; conversely, if inflows stagnate, we need to be wary of the risk of rebound momentum exhaustion.