- In recent days, SpaceX moved from customer to competitor for Howmet Aerospace by beginning to cast gas turbine blades in-house, directly challenging a core part of Howmet’s specialized casting business.
- This shift introduces a technically advanced, well-funded rival into a niche supply chain that has historically depended on external specialists like Howmet, potentially altering competitive dynamics across aerospace and industrial turbine markets.
- We’ll now examine how SpaceX’s entry into turbine blade casting could reshape Howmet’s investment narrative built on aerospace demand and capacity expansion.
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Howmet Aerospace Investment Narrative Recap
To own Howmet Aerospace, you need to believe in sustained demand for advanced aerospace components and the company’s ability to translate that into profitable growth, even as capital spending and customer concentration remain key risks. SpaceX’s move into in house turbine blade casting challenges a focused part of Howmet’s portfolio, but at this stage it does not appear to alter the main short term catalyst, which is execution on its aero and industrial capacity ramp.
The most relevant recent announcement here is Howmet’s raised FY2026 revenue guidance to about US$10.0 billion to US$10.1 billion, reflecting confidence in near term demand and operational performance. That outlook sits against the backdrop of a high valuation multiple and meaningful capex, so any sign that new competition affects future orders or margins could matter more for sentiment than for the current year’s numbers.
Yet beneath the strong guidance and recent results, investors should also be aware of how rising competition in specialized castings could...
Read the full narrative on Howmet Aerospace (it's free!)
Howmet Aerospace's narrative projects $13.2 billion revenue and $3.1 billion earnings by 2029.
Uncover how Howmet Aerospace's forecasts yield a $325.93 fair value, a 25% upside to its current price.
Exploring Other Perspectives
Some of the most optimistic analysts were assuming revenue could climb to about US$13.6 billion and earnings to roughly US$3.6 billion before this news, which looks far more upbeat than the baseline view and may now need to be revisited in light of SpaceX’s push into advanced turbine casting.
Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Howmet Aerospace - why the stock might be worth 15% less than the current price!
Form Your Own Verdict
Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.
- A great starting point for your Howmet Aerospace research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
- Our free Howmet Aerospace research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Howmet Aerospace's overall financial health at a glance.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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