According to Woofun AI, the price of Bitcoin has rebounded above $81,000. Although Wallerstein's remarks have improved macro sentiment, options traders don't think the market will completely break through, and long and short differences are beginning to appear at key resistance levels.
The financial side of the spot market is undergoing a structural shift from closing short positions to broad-based demand expansion. After Bitcoin-related funds in the US attracted $3.5 billion in August, the best monthly performance since September 2025, this week's inflow of new ETFs further confirmed this trend. As the price of Bitcoin recovered to around $80,000, there was a sharp rise in exchange activity.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the daily spot trading volume detected by CryptoQuant increased three to four times compared to the low in early August. Among them, Binance increased the most, while Coinbase (COIN.US) and MEXC also increased simultaneously. The behavior of giant whales has increased significantly, with more than 2,000 bitcoins entering the exchange every hour, and Binance's average single deposit rose from 20-30 to more than 50, to a maximum of 75.
Although this flow of capital may include preparation for sale, combined with the 7-day increase in the cumulative deposit volume of altcoins from 15,000 to 45,000, as well as the performance of Ethereum, Ripple, and Solana rising by more than 5%, and Zcash and Cardano rising by more than 10%, it indicates that the rebound is more solid than at the beginning. ETF inflows of $7309 million on Thursday reversed an outflow of $236 million earlier this week, indicating that buyers' persistence is growing.
However, the derivatives market poses a significant barrier of resistance. On Friday, $2.39 billion, 29,600 Bitcoin options expired, the ratio of bearish to bullish options was 0.65, and the maximum loss threshold was set at $73,000. These expired contracts account for only 7% of the total amount of unexpired options, and most positions remain unchanged. Greeks.live analysis indicates that traders sold call options with an option price higher than $80,000, which concentrated Gamma risk, while put options had very little Gamma risk. If prices continue to rise, options sellers' hedging adjustments may put additional pressure on key exercise prices.
Bitcoin hit a high of $81,400 on August 28, then fell back to the $76,000-$81,000 range. The 365-day moving average calculated by CryptoQuant is at $82,300, which is a key criterion for judging the strength of a long-term bull market. In terms of volatility, the actual monthly volatility was around 40% this week, while the implied monthly volatility dropped to 36%. The volatility risk premium rebounded from minus 16% to minus 6% on Thursday 15th, far below last month's peak of 15%.
This means that the actual trend is more intense than predicted by options, but the market still expects the price to consolidate in the $80,000-$83,000 range rather than immediately fluctuate significantly.
The key to future breakthroughs lies in a continuous game between macro variables and buyers. Although the current rebound has a more solid foundation than the first wave, the momentum after closing short positions is weakening, and we must rely on new buyers to take over at a high level. While Thursday's inflow of $7309 million was positive, it wasn't enough to form a lasting institutional buy against the backdrop of an outflow of $236 million earlier this week. Bitcoin needs to break through long-term resistance at $82,300 and bullish option pressure above $80,000, while facing lower volatility expectations in the options market. The benefits brought by Wallerstein are highly dependent on subsequent inflation data. If the data is better than expected, it may quickly trigger expectations of austerity policies and reverse the easing trend in the financial market. Achieving a continued breakthrough to the $83,000 target ultimately depends on the continued demand for ETFs and the persistence of buyers in the midst of shocks. This is another severe test facing the market following the previous rebound.