New Aalborg refurbishment contract puts NCC’s Nordic housing work in focus
NCC (OM:NCC B) has secured a SEK 220 million contract from Himmerlands Boligförening to refurbish 350 residential units in Aalborg, Denmark, with revenue booked in the third quarter of 2026.
The Aalborg contract lands at a time when NCC’s share price has been under pressure this year, with a year to date share price return of an 18.15% decline, even as the 5 year total shareholder return of 59.08% and 3 year total shareholder return of 86.32% point to a much stronger longer term record.
Compare NCC’s latest Aalborg win with other construction and infrastructure stocks by scanning our hand picked list of list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (439 results) for ideas with sturdier financial footing.
NCC’s share price has slipped this year while analyst and intrinsic value estimates still sit above the market price. Is the recent weakness enough to create a genuine valuation gap, or is the discount deserved?
Most Popular Narrative: 10.9% Undervalued
NCC last closed at SEK180.4 while the most followed narrative points to a fair value of SEK202.5, putting the current discount into sharp focus.
The analysts have a consensus price target of SEK202.5 for NCC based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of SEK240.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just SEK180.0.
The fair value narrative for NCC leans on a detailed earnings ramp up, a step change in margins and a lower future earnings multiple than many construction peers. It examines which specific revenue path and profitability assumptions would need to align to support that SEK202.5 figure.
Result: Fair Value of SEK202.5 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, NCC still faces currency pressure from a stronger Swedish krona and a muted property transaction market, which could challenge the upbeat earnings narrative.
Find out about the key risks to this NCC narrative.
Next Steps
With NCC presenting both potential rewards and clear risk flags, it makes sense to look beyond headlines and test the numbers yourself. A good place to start is with a balanced view of the 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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