Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) is back in focus after presenting pivotal Phase 3 SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4 data for plozasiran in severe hypertriglyceridemia at the ESC Congress 2026, highlighting triglyceride and acute pancreatitis risk reductions.
Against this backdrop, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals’ recent news sits alongside a share price that has gained 16.9% over the past 90 days and a year to date share price return of 27.36%. The 1 year total shareholder return is 196.96%, hinting that momentum has strengthened as the market reassesses the company’s risk and growth profile.
Spot 37 healthcare AI stocks that, like Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, are using advanced science to tackle complex conditions and could be positioned for the next wave of healthcare breakthroughs.After Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals’ sharp re-rating on SHASTA data and a 1 year total return near 200%, the key issue now is pricing. Does today’s valuation still leave enough upside for the risk you are taking?
Most Popular Narrative: 21.6% Undervalued
The most followed narrative currently places Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals' fair value at $110.18, above the last close of $86.34, which implies a sizeable valuation gap that investors are trying to understand.
Arrowhead's advancing late-stage clinical pipeline, especially the expected launch of plozasiran for FCS and SHTG, plus pivotal studies for three other RNAi therapies targeting major unmet needs, is seen by some investors as a position from which the company could potentially benefit from rising demand for treatments driven by an aging population and the increasing prevalence of chronic and genetic diseases. Some market participants view progress in RNAi delivery technology, pipeline breadth in both prevalent and rare indications, and perceived first-mover potential in CNS and adipose tissue RNAi as factors that may support Arrowhead's competitive profile as advancements in genomics and precision medicine change the landscape for RNAi therapies.
Want to understand why this narrative supports a higher fair value for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals? It focuses on assumptions about revenue expansion, margin improvement and a future earnings multiple that presumes ongoing demand for its RNAi pipeline. Curious which specific growth and profitability assumptions would need to hold for the $110.18 figure to appear reasonable?
Result: Fair Value of $110.18 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals' story can shift quickly if key partnerships stumble or if late stage trials and regulatory reviews for plozasiran and zodasiran disappoint.
Find out about the key risks to this Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals narrative.
Another View on Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals' Valuation
While the analyst-based fair value suggests Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals is 21.6% undervalued at $110.18, our DCF model presents a different perspective. It puts fair value at $172.14 per share, compared with the current $86.34 price. Which set of assumptions do you find more realistic?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Next Steps
With Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals attracting both optimism and concern, this is a moment to move quickly and test the thesis against your own checklist. Start by weighing the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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