The Zhitong Finance App learned that Matt Maley (Matt Maley), chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., said that the 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching the key level of 4.8%. If it continues to break through this threshold, it may have a “substantial impact” on other asset classes.
“We are still concerned about the US bond market... rising fiscal deficits, huge debt issuance, and large-scale corporate borrowing continue to put pressure on long-term yields... and the US Treasury's efforts to lower interest rates through verbal intervention have had no effect, at least so far.” Marley wrote in a weekend report.
He pointed out that if the 10-year US Treasury yield continues to stand at 4.8%, the high reached in January 2025, “it will be particularly worrying.” This may indicate that market anxiety is surpassing policy regulation, and that the trend of borrowing costs is being dominated by fiscal pressure.
The US Treasury's “shouting” failed, and yields remained high and difficult
Recently, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to reduce yields through verbal intervention, but the market did not buy it. The timing of this round of operations was very careful. At the time, investors were shorting US debt on a large scale, compounding the lackluster summer trading. Policymakers originally hoped that verbal intervention would follow the trend and ignite a wave of market rebound.
However, it backfired. Marley pointed out that this just revealed an embarrassing reality: without actually addressing the root causes of finance, it is difficult to calm the market with statements alone. Now that the US budget deficit is high and the national debt has exceeded 40 trillion US dollars, it is becoming increasingly difficult for investors to turn a blind eye to this. What's more, the government is still competing with companies for limited capital — demand for corporate debt issuance is just as strong.
The pressure on the supply side should not be underestimated. Marley estimates that from now until the end of the year, more than 8.4 trillion US dollars of US Treasury bonds will continue to mature, and September is likely to be the historical peak for the issuance of high-rated corporate bonds. Goldman Sachs recently raised its 2026 US dollar investment grade bond issuance forecast to $2.3 trillion.
The pressure is not limited to the US; Japan, the United Kingdom, France, and other advanced economies are also facing major fiscal challenges. Investors are demanding more and more returns on government bonds, which is driving the global bond market to undergo a round of structural reshaping.
Marley believes that this does not mean that yields will rise in a straight line. Extreme bearishness and position layout may also trigger a round of fierce shortfall correction, driving US Treasury futures to soar in the short term. However, he stressed that even if there is such a rebound, it is more likely to be just a tactical fluctuation rather than a reversal of long-term trends.
The 4.8% mark is anxious, or it may trigger a chain reaction across assets
Currently, 5% has become the psychological threshold for long-term US bond yields, but Marley noticed that the market's tolerance threshold has moved several times upwards — from 4.4% to 4.5%, 4.6%, and now 4.7%.
If the yield on US long-term treasury bonds continues to exceed 4.8%, the impact may far exceed the bond market. Michael Chen, general manager of Noah's Ark Hong Kong, said that the disorderly rise in long-term US bond yields may trigger the repricing of assets that rely on long-term cash flow, including ultra-long-term bonds, high-valued growth stocks, commercial real estate, and some private equity assets.
Chen said that the US bond market is under structural pressure, and the risk premiums required by investors to hold long-term government bonds will continue to rise under the “fiscal dominance” pattern. His current strategy is to be optimistic about gold and hard currency as structural hedging tools, low allocation of ultra-long-term US bonds, while continuing to invest in high-quality stocks, real assets, and AI infrastructure (electricity, power grids, energy storage, data centers).
HSBC also tends to be cautious about long-term bonds in developed markets. The bank raised the 10-year US Treasury yield forecast for the end of 2026 from 4.30% to 4.65% on the grounds that the structural bottom of long-term interest rates is rising and that monetary policy is trending in a more hawkish direction. Meanwhile, HSBC raised its 10-year German Treasury yield forecast for the end of 2026 from 2.8% to 3%, stressing that it is wary of long-term bonds in developed markets as a whole.
According to Marley, even if yields fall in the short term, it will not solve long-term fundamental problems. “If there is a recent rebound in the US bond market and yields continue to decline — even after the midterm elections — as long as there are no substantial reforms on the fiscal side, this dilemma will remain unsolvable in the long run.” he said.
The US Treasury Department “doubled” the repurchase, and this week's auction ushered in a critical test
It is worth noting that the US Treasury Department will launch the previously announced “double” US debt repurchase program this week, and the relevant adjustments will take effect on September 9. The move is aimed at improving market liquidity and easing upward pressure on long-term yields.
Looking back, the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds once fell by nearly 10 basis points after the announcement of the US Treasury's expansion of repurchases. However, this key indicator, which reflects the cost of long-term financing, rebounded again the next day. Some analysts pointed out that expanding the scale of repurchases is more about moving back the pressure on refinancing, and does not touch on the core proposition of reducing the deficit.
A more direct test comes from the US 10-year treasury bond auction this Thursday. The bid interest rate for the previous auction was 4.68%, and the bid multiplier was 2.53; now, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to 4.78%. This auction will be a key signal to observe investors' willingness to take on long-term bonds at a high yield level.