According to Woofun AI, strong US employment data completely broke the market's illusion of interest rate cuts, causing Bitcoin to fluctuate sharply in the short term. Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller has previously stated his preference for keeping interest rates unchanged, but the latest economic report released on Friday quickly reversed this expectation, making macroeconomic policy uncertainty a core variable in suppressing asset prices.
The microstructure of the market is extremely responsive. Before the data was released, the Bitcoin price hit $82,178.60 earlier this week, a new high since mid-May. However, with 162,000 new jobs added in August, far exceeding market expectations of 55,000, and the unemployment rate remained at the expected level of 4.1%, the July data was also raised by 43,000, and market sentiment was instantly reversed. Bitcoin dropped more than 2% in the intraday period, plummeting from $81,300 to $78,600, then buying intervention pulled the price to the $79,500 to $79,800 range.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, this fluctuation directly boosted expectations of interest rate hikes: the probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September rose from 52% to 58%, while the Polymarket forecast shows that the probability of the two is almost half, reflecting fluctuations in market confidence.
Despite single-day pressure, cryptocurrency analyst Bull Theory pointed out that Bitcoin's rebound of nearly $20,000 in 20 days is still impressive, and the weekly increase is expected to reach about 3%, achieving a third consecutive week of gains.
Regulatory policies and corporate dynamics constitute another key variable. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins expects the Senate to vote on the Clarity Act on September 15 and urges lawmakers to pass it before the end of September.
Although the SEC plans to introduce supporting regulations in line with the Act, differences remain on core provisions such as income distribution and transaction rules for stablecoins. Meanwhile, demand from the enterprise side is strong, and the stock price of Strategy (MSTR.US), the largest enterprise-level holder, rose nearly 18% on Thursday, demonstrating investors' continued preference for Bitcoin-focused companies.
This micro-level capital inflow is in sharp conflict with macro-level austerity expectations.
Future market trends depend on the balance between macro concerns and micro benefits. Although strong employment data makes interest rate paths full of variables, the continuation of ETF capital inflows and weekly upward trends inject resilience into the market. Before making a more definitive decision to raise interest rates in September, traders will focus their attention on the upcoming inflation data to determine the true point of the shift in monetary policy.