The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs released a research report saying that on September 7, the bank invited Iceberg Index founder Li Yanguo as the second speaker in the 2026 China Property Experts Conference Call Series. Iceberg Index is based on a digital analysis system for second-hand property transaction prices in about 70/40 cities to reflect and predict volume and price trends in the property market in a timely manner with leading indicators.
After entering August, the month-on-month decline in second-hand property prices in most cities widened again, but turnover clearly rebounded in the first week of September, bringing a positive start to the traditional “gold nine silver ten” peak season. Li Yanguo maintains a constructive view on volume in the fourth quarter of 2026. It is expected to be higher than the same period last year, but as new listing supply rises, prices may weaken marginally; the greater risk is concentrated in the high-end sector of second-tier cities.
Looking ahead to 2027, if more transactions continue than new listings and continue until next spring sales season, Shanghai is expected to take the lead in an overall price recovery, with a cumulative increase of 6% to 12% in property prices by the end of 2027; Shenzhen may follow suit, and most core cities are expected to stabilize around the end of next year. Suzhou and Hefei are showing signs of stabilization. Prices in some low-tier cities in the central and western regions have also seen month-on-month improvements, and the turnover trend in cities such as Xuzhou has improved markedly. As for the August 28 policy calling for a shift to existing home sales, Li Yanguo believes that the short-term impact is not significant, but it is expected that it will support the market from 2027 to 2028 by reducing new supply in the future.