According to WooFunai, Bitcoin's asset attributes are undergoing a significant shift, and its 90-day correlation coefficient with gold climbed to +0.56, the highest since 2020. Meanwhile, the correlation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ of 100 and USD has fallen back to a level close to 0.
This divergence shows that Bitcoin's price-driving logic is shifting from a risky beta of technology stocks to a macro-narrative consistent with gold, where scarce value storage attributes dominate the current market cycle.
Looking back at the historical cycle, the linkage between Bitcoin and traditional assets has always evolved with the market environment. TaloSCM data shows that in the early days of the COVID-19 liquidity shock in 2020, Bitcoin fell at the same time as other risk assets, then rebounded sharply with gold against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's emergency easing and fiscal intervention depressing yields. In 2023, the collapse of many regional banks in the US raised concerns about pressure on the financial system. The Federal Reserve introduced emergency liquidity tools, and market transactions anticipated interest rate cuts. Both Bitcoin and gold once again benefited. The current environment is characterized by the above two stages: the US Treasury has increased the scale of long-term bond repurchases to maintain market liquidity. This move has lowered long-term yields and dragged down the US dollar, reigniting market concerns about fiscal deficits, the scale of debt issuance, and the long-term purchasing power of the US dollar, thus favoring scarce assets such as gold and Bitcoin.
However, unlike 2020, the current real yield is still high, limiting the room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. If interest rates continue to rise, Bitcoin will still face the risk of being pressured, which explains why complex macroeconomic divergences are hidden behind the current rise in correlation.
The intensification of policy games has further amplified market volatility. The Federal Reserve is struggling between fighting inflation and maintaining financial stability. Strong employment data and ongoing concerns about inflation have kept interest rates and real returns high for a longer period of time, weakening the appeal of interest-free assets such as Bitcoin. After the release of the non-agricultural data on September 4, Bitcoin fell rapidly, which intuitively showed how strong employment data that exceeded expectations quickly raised expectations of interest rate hikes. After the Jackson Hole meeting, the market's implied probability of a 25 basis point FOMC rate hike in September surged from 29% to 51% in just 4 hours, and Bitcoin fell 1.8% during the same period. Kalshi's forecast market data also showed that Bitcoin was sold off in the early days of the August non-agricultural release, and the market did not gradually absorb the impact until the interest rate hike expectations were implemented.
This extreme sensitivity to changes in policy expectations highlights the central position of macroeconomic data in determining short-term trends.
Macro events have a particularly pronounced amplifying effect on fluctuations. Data compiled by WooFunai shows that between January 2025 and September 2026, the average absolute fluctuation of Bitcoin prices before and after the macro event far exceeded the normal period. The immediate response from the employment report was strongest. Bitcoin fluctuated 2 times during the first 30 minutes after the data was released; the core CPI data fluctuated 1.8 times the normal level during the same period, and the impact lasted longer; in contrast, the fluctuation caused by the FOMC resolution itself was basically close to the benchmark level.
The non-agricultural data released on September 4 is a typical example: 162,000 new jobs were added in August, far exceeding market expectations of 56,000 people. Bitcoin fell 2.32% within 30 minutes after the data was released, and the fluctuation reached about 6 times the normal response to the non-agricultural incident. During this period, Bitcoin's open positions fell by 3%, and the scale of long liquidation and short liquidation were about 5:1. They reached US$119 million and US$24 million, respectively. The CPI data to be released on September 11 is the most important forward-looking indicator before the September FOMC meeting. The results will directly determine the direction of pressure to raise interest rates, which in turn will affect Bitcoin, gold, and overall risk appetite.
Although Bitcoin remains the core weather vane for risk appetite in the crypto market, its price trend no longer fully represents the fate of the entire digital asset industry. The on-chain trading, tokenization, settlement, and forecasting markets are creating independent sources of transaction volume, fees, and liquidity, showing endogenous growth momentum away from currency price fluctuations. Hyperliquid continues to expand the stock and commodity perpetual contract markets, HIP-4 predicts that the market is active, Robinhood (HOOD.US) Chain has made initial progress, and the scale of tokenized asset issuance continues to grow, all confirming the independence of ecological development. Demand for stablecoins, on-chain earnings, tokenized assets, and round-the-clock trading infrastructure will continue to grow even under pressure from the macro environment. Bitcoin may dominate short-term sentiment, but the digital asset industry already has the potential to continue evolving in different macrocycles.