Apple's (AAPL) foldable iPhone hasn't even launched yet, and the competition is already lining up to steal its spotlight.
This week, Huawei and Xiaomi both released new foldable phones just days before Apple's expected reveal. The timing was a calculated move to get ahead of Apple's biggest product launch of the year.
Apple is holding an event today where it's rumored to unveil its first-ever foldable iPhone, marking a major moment under incoming CEO John Ternus, according to CNBC. The launch comes at a pivotal time for Apple stock price watchers, as the company navigates supply constraints and rising memory costs heading into the holiday quarter.
Apple vs. Huawei and Xiaomi
According to CNBC:
- Xiaomi, the world's third-largest smartphone maker, launched the Xiaomi 18 Fold on Monday. The device is a passport-sized foldable similar to Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold8, which hit the market earlier this year.
- Huawei unveiled the Mate XT2 on Monday, the third generation of its trifold phone and a device it pioneered in the category.
- Francisco Jeronimo, a vice president at IDC who covers mobile devices, claimed the timing was deliberate.
- He said rival vendors knew Apple was coming with a foldable, so they wanted their own products already on shelves.
- Basically, shoppers can now compare devices once Apple's phone arrives in stores.
Neil Shah, a partner at Counterpoint Research, told CNBC there's real pent-up demand for a foldable iPhone among Apple's loyal customer base. Some users have already switched to Samsung's foldables, he said, but many could return if Apple delivers a strong first effort.
What Analysts Expect from iPhone Sales in the Foldable Category
Counterpoint Research expects Apple could ship six million foldable iPhones in 2026. That would give Apple a 25% share of the global foldable market by year-end. Counterpoint also expects Apple’s foldable market share to increase to 40% by 2027.
According to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, the foldable category is expected to grow 12.6% this year to reach 22.9 million units, and by 18% to 27 million units in 2027. IDC credits Apple's arrival as the main driver behind that acceleration.
Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC, said Apple isn't just adding another model to the category. She explained that Apple is turning a segment that was heading toward decline into the fastest-growing part of the smartphone industry.
IDC forecasts Apple will ship more than 17 million foldable iPhones by 2027, capturing about 40% of the global foldable market with an average selling price above $2,550. Foldables remain one of the most expensive smartphone categories. A higher average selling price should boost gross margins and drive higher earnings per share for the iPhone maker.
Apple Stock Could Jump on Memory Crunch
The foldable race is unfolding against a tough backdrop for the entire smartphone industry. IDC data shows global smartphone shipments fell 7.4% year over year in the second quarter of 2026, dropping to 276.3 million units. The market research firm attributed the decline to a memory chip shortage, with memory costs up nearly 300% from a year ago. Despite that pressure, Apple and Samsung were the only two vendors among the top five to grow shipments last quarter, according to IDC.
Jeronimo said the memory crisis has effectively split the smartphone market in two, rewarding companies like Apple that secured supply early and sell devices where memory costs make up a smaller share of the total price tag.
IDC now forecasts overall smartphone shipments to fall 16.7% for all of 2026, the steepest annual drop the industry has ever recorded. Average selling prices are expected to jump 27.6% this year to $581, largely because vendors are passing rising memory costs on to shoppers.
In China, Apple faces its stiffest foldable competition from Huawei, which controls more than two-thirds of the country's foldable market, CNBC reported. Shah told CNBC that aspiring Chinese consumers are likely to want Apple's newest device, and he expects a wave of upgrades from Apple's existing China customer base once the foldable iPhone becomes available.
Both Huawei and Xiaomi also highlighted their own custom chips this week. Xiaomi said its new fold runs on the XRing O3 processor, while Huawei said its Mate XT2 uses a new chip technique called LogicFolding, per CNBC.
With the iPhone event approaching, all eyes are on whether Apple can turn pent-up demand into real sales, and what that means for Apple stock heading into the crucial holiday shopping season.
Out of the 41 analysts covering AAPL stock, 21 recommend “Strong Buy”, three recommend “Moderate Buy”, 13 recommend “Hold”, two recommend “Moderate Sell”, and two recommend “Strong Sell”. The average Apple stock price target is $329, above the current price of $316.
On the date of publication, Aditya Raghunath did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.