According to Woofun AI, the CLARITY bill is facing a life-or-death legislative window. If it fails to break through procedural barriers in the Senate this week, the prospects for implementation will become extremely uncertain due to the possibility that the Democratic Party will return to power in 2027. Republican Senate Majority Leader John Tune has scheduled a vote to end the bill on Tuesday, which means the legislative process has entered the countdown, and any loss in the political game could cause the bill to be completely shelved or rewritten.
The urgency of the legislative time window stems from the tight schedule after the Senate reconvened. Lawmakers returned on Monday after a more than month-long in-state work hiatus, leaving very limited time for the CLARITY Act to become law. The vote to end the debate, which began on Tuesday, is a critical point in breaking the blockade. The Republican Party must seek the support of a small number of Democratic lawmakers to reach the absolute majority threshold of 60 votes. If this vote requirement is not met, there is little hope that the bill will be implemented before the new National Assembly is sworn in in 2027.
It is worth noting that the November midterm election results will directly determine the ownership of the National Assembly, which in turn will influence the direction of legislation. Senator Cynthia Loomis, one of the core supporters of the bill, warned on September 6 that if lawmakers fail to reach a consensus and submit the bill to the President for signature, the next real chance of passing it may be delayed until 2030. Loomis himself will not run for re-election in 2026, and his statement highlights the fragility of the current legislative environment. The midterm elections involved the re-election of all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 33 seats in the Senate. Predictive market Kalshi's contract shows that the probability of the Democratic Party regaining a majority of seats in the House of Representatives is high, while the battle for control of the Senate is on a five-and-a-half-way trend. Looking back at the 2024 election, the Republican Party achieved control of both houses of the Senate and the House of Representatives and the presidency, and used this to push for pro-crypto legislation, including the GENIUS Act. Once the party pattern in Congress is reversed, starting next year, the Republican Party will have to push for relevant legislation according to the Democratic Party's conditions, and there is a significant risk that legislative dominance will change hands.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the midterm elections are not only a seat dispute, but also a battleground for money for the Cryptographic Political Action Committee (PAC). Former Ohio Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown was the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee. In the 2024 election, institutions such as Fairshake, funded by crypto companies such as Coinbase (COIN.US) and Ripple, invested millions of dollars in advertising funds to support their rivals, causing Brown to lose the election. Now Brown is running again for the Senate seat vacated by Vice President Vance.
As an important tool to help “pro-crypto” lawmakers enter the National Assembly, Fairshake helped many candidates win in the 2026 primary election, but it wasn't invincible. In March of this year, Illinois Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton still won the state's federal senator party primary election even though the industry was running a large number of offensive advertisements. Crypto PAC's strategy is clear: provide financial support to incumbent lawmakers who voted for the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, and launch a negative advertising campaign against critical challengers.
Massachusetts's 4th district Democratic candidate Jason Prowse stated in the party's primary election against current Congressman Jack O'Hincklos: “Oshin Close voted for the CLARITY Act, which is why the crypto industry did not hesitate to fund his re-election.” A Fairshake-related PAC ran a campaign ad for Oshinkross. Prowse further criticized: “The massive influx of external capital into the crypto industry means that a few oligarchs have too much influence over our lawmakers and federal policies. That's why we need to push large sums of capital out of politics.” This kind of political donation is directly linked to legislative positions, and the ideological rivalry in the election has intensified.
Regardless of the results of the November midterm elections, stability at the administrative and regulatory levels will remain the same for the short term. The White House will continue to be controlled by the Republican Party until January 2029, and the President reserves the right to veto the bill. If the president vetoes a Democrat-led crypto bill, both houses of the Senate and the House of Representatives must get more than two-thirds of the votes at the same time to overturn the veto. This high threshold makes it more difficult to pass legislation.
Furthermore, as long as Trump remains in office, the heads of the two major US financial regulators, the SEC and CFTC, will not change. Trump appointed Paul Atkins as SEC Chairman and Michael Selig as CFTC Chairman. Two regulators have publicly stated that if Congress fails to advance the CLARITY Act this year, regulators will introduce their own digital asset regulation rules.
This solidification of executive and regulatory powers means that even if congressional legislation stagnates, the crypto industry's regulatory framework will continue to be shaped by the current government until the handover of power in 2029. This is yet another long-term institutional constraint faced by the crypto industry following the formation of the separation of powers pattern in 2024. The misalignment of legislation and regulation is likely to continue for several years.