ANZ said in the report that traditional Asian trade surpluses are returning to the US and the circular model of investing in US bonds is gradually failing, which means that US Treasury yields may need to stay in a range higher than pre-pandemic levels for a long time to attract sufficient capital to handle new supply. Xing Zhaopeng, a senior Chinese strategist at ANZ Bank, pointed out that the traditional view is that economies that maintain trade surpluses with the US will eventually invest US dollar income in US treasury bonds, and that excess savings accumulated by the Asian economy provide financing support for the US fiscal deficit. However, this model is changing, and more surplus funds no longer flow mainly to US Treasury bonds. Most major Asian economies now have free floating or managed floating exchange rate systems, and their dependence on foreign exchange reserves has declined markedly; many dollar revenues are retained and allocated by companies, insurance institutions, funds, and other private investors, and US Treasury bonds are less attractive to them based on higher requirements for return on investment.

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