The Bank of Russia will once again face the choice of whether to suspend the easing cycle. Although political pressure appears to have abated, Governor Elvira Nabiullina faces increasing risks of inflation due to disrupted fuel supplies and increased government spending. Although Russia will hold parliamentary elections one week after the interest rate resolution, according to people familiar with the matter, the Kremlin is not pressuring the central bank to take specific action. Since the discussions were not public, people familiar with the matter requested anonymity. The Bank of Russia may choose between “keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 14%” and “cutting interest rates slightly by 25 basis points” on Friday.

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