Pre-market market trends
1. On September 11 (Friday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.58%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.57%, and NASDAQ futures were up 0.72%.
2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 0.42%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.60%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.59%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.67%.
3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 3.26% to $99.14 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 3.50% to $103.86 per barrel.
Market news
The rebound in gasoline prices boosted CPI expectations for August, and the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week to 70%. Affected by the rebound in gasoline prices after falling for two consecutive months, the increase in consumer prices in the US is expected to accelerate in August, further strengthening the financial market's expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week. According to the survey, economists expect CPI to rise 0.4% month-on-month in August, up from 0.1% in July; the year-on-year increase is expected to remain at 3.4%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to rise 0.2% month-on-month, close to July, reflecting a slowing increase in rent, clothing and new vehicle prices; the year-on-year increase is expected to be 2.4%, slightly lower than the 2.5% increase in July. Food prices are expected to rise moderately from month to month in August, and the year-on-year increase is likely to remain around 3.0%.
If the 10-year US Treasury yield reaches 5%, or will it trigger a 10% correction in US stocks? According to the latest Markets Pulse survey, the intensifying bond sell-off is driving US Treasury yields to a level that could be a major blow to the stock market. Of the 122 respondents to this survey, about 30% believed that the 10-year US Treasury yield of 5% to 5.25% would be enough to trigger a 10% drop from the peak in the stock market — this decline would be in line with the definition of a technical correction; another 22% set the trigger threshold at a slightly higher 5.25% — 5.5%.
IEA: The gap between global oil supply and demand will be larger this year than previously anticipated. The International Energy Agency (IEA) monthly report reports that this year the global oil supply and demand gap will be larger than previously anticipated. Due to lack of progress in ending the war with Iran, the return to normal oil flow in the Middle East has been delayed until 2027, leading to a sharp rise in fuel prices. The IEA predicts that global oil demand will drop 2.5 million b/d in 2026 (previously forecast a decrease of 1.6 million b/d); global oil supply in 2026 is expected to be 1.74 million b/d lower than demand (previously forecast 1.27 million b/d lower).
First time in history! The price of diesel in the US broke through $6. For the first time in history, the price of diesel in the US has surpassed 6 US dollars per gallon. As the peak season for diesel demand is approaching, this fuel, which is rarely directly perceived by American consumers but supports the global supply chain, is becoming a driver of inflation at the fastest rate in history. According to the latest data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) on Friday, the average price of diesel in the US reached 6.0556 US dollars/gallon; in California, the average price was as high as 7.9827 US dollars/gallon. According to the AAA, the cost for truck drivers and farmers to fill up fuel tanks is about 63% higher than in the same period last year.
Houthis: Major military action will be announced. A spokesman for the Houthis in Yemen said, “The Houthis in Yemen will announce major military action.” Earlier, according to Agence France-Presse, Yemen's Houthis have completed control of the Mander Strait after seizing strategic locations in the Red Sea. The Strait of Mander connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, and is an important maritime channel connecting the Indian Ocean, the Suez Canal, and Europe. About 10% of the world's trade is transported through this waterway. The Houthis in Yemen said that the statement will be issued at 4 p.m. local time (9 p.m. Beijing time).
Iran and the Gulf countries will hold a meeting next week to push forward the Strait of Hormuz agreement. According to reports, the foreign ministers of the Gulf countries plan to meet with Iranian foreign ministers to respond to the initiative of Oman and Iran to seek support from all parties for an agreement to temporarily manage shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, countries in the region are seeking ways to ease the hostile situation surrounding this waterway. According to sources, the conference is scheduled to be held next Monday in the coastal city of Salalah (Salalah) in Oman. Details have yet to be finalized, but several countries have confirmed that the meeting is expected to take place as scheduled. If the conference is held, it will highlight the region's sense of urgency to try to re-open the straits and ease the hostilities between the US and Iran.
Saudi Arabia urged the US to attack the Houthis, but the US side rejected it. According to news from the US side on the evening of the 10th, two US officials said that Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed telephoned US President Trump twice that day to urge the US to launch an attack on the Houthis in Yemen, but Trump refused. US officials stressed that the US government currently has no plans to directly interfere with the Houthis. According to the news, the US is increasing its support for Saudi Arabia, but at the same time avoiding direct military intervention. Another source revealed that US Central Command Commander Brad Cooper went to Saudi Arabia on the 10th to attend an emergency coordination meeting. A senior US government official said that the US side's priority is to keep the Red Sea open, but leave the wider fighting to regional allies.
The CEO of OpenAI is open to slowing down cutting-edge AI development. According to reports, OpenAI is considering slowing down the development of cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI), and its CEO Altman hopes other AI companies will follow suit. People familiar with the matter revealed that Altman told employees at a company-wide conference this week that OpenAI may adjust the pace of its AI development — perhaps in collaboration with several other AI labs, although some may not agree to do so. In recent weeks, employees at leading AI companies have publicly expressed concerns about the increased risk of advanced AI systems, which has heightened anxiety within these companies. Both OpenAI and its competitor Anthropic submitted confidential listing applications earlier this year.
Individual stock news
Oracle's (ORCL.US) Q1 performance exceeded expectations, and cloud infrastructure business revenue soared 121%, and RPO surged to $664 billion. Oracle's Q1 revenue increased 30% year over year to US$19.35 billion, better than analysts' average expectations of US$19.13 billion. The company attributed revenue growth to trends such as strong cloud infrastructure business performance and increased data center capacity. Net profit attributable to common shareholders was $4.68 billion, up 60% year over year; adjusted earnings per share were $1.92, better than analysts' average expectations of $1.75. Oracle added more than $30 billion in AI cloud contracts in the first quarter, increasing its remaining performance obligations (RPO) by 4% month-on-month to $664 billion, higher than analysts' average expectations of $618 billion. The stock rose about 6% before the US market on Friday.
Nvidia (NVDA.US) Grace Blackwell's shipments reported a 27% month-on-month increase. According to reports, Nvidia Grace Blackwell platform shipments have recently increased 27% month-on-month, reflecting the continued strong demand for high-end AI computing chips from cloud service providers and AI infrastructure companies. Grace Blackwell combines Nvidia Grace CPUs with Blackwell GPUs and can be used in liquid-cooled rack systems such as GB200 NVL72. Nvidia has previously stated that demand for Blackwell products exceeds supply capacity.
Big bear Bury cuts exposure: liquidate Nvidia and Palantir (PLTR.US) put options and reserve cash for fall evaluation. Well-known Wall Street shorty Michael Berry has reduced his portfolio exposure, including put option positions related to Nvidia and Palantir; he said he has closed the two companies' put options due in December this year because he wants to hold more cash to assess changing market conditions in the fall. Bury's largest long positions currently are Lululemon (LULU.US), Molina Healthcare (MOH.US), and MercadoLibre (MELI.US), but he has also reduced his long positions in these stocks.
SpaceX (SPCX.US) revealed a major benefit: a large order of 10 billion US dollars of computing power landed. SpaceX Chief Financial Officer Brett Johnson attended the 2026 Goldman Sachs Communacopia+ Technology Conference to reveal the latest business developments. Johnson revealed that SpaceX recently won another large AI computing power hosting order, and the computing power business is rapidly becoming a core growth engine. At the same time, he also announced the company's schedule for various business lines, such as the expansion of terrestrial computing power, orbital computing power, commercialization of Starships, and direct satellite connections to mobile phones. Johnson announced the company's ambitious goals for business expansion: SpaceX is confident of hitting the $100 billion annualized recurring revenue (ARR) target by the end of 2026.
Adobe (ADBE.US) has mixed results: active users surpassed 1 billion in Q3, ARR for AI products increased by 150%, and Q4 guidelines fell slightly short of expectations. Adobe released its third fiscal quarter report card after the market on Thursday — revenue of US$6.76 billion reached a record high, with adjusted earnings of US$6.13 per share doubling Wall Street expectations. The annual recurring revenue of “AI First” products increased by more than 150% year-on-year, and monthly active users broke the 1 billion mark for the first time. However, earnings guidance for the fourth fiscal quarter was not impressive enough, triggering a 4% drop in stock prices before the market.
Kroger's (KR.US) Q2 profit exceeded expectations but fell by more than 3%: same-store sales increased by only 0.2%, and sales guidance for the whole year was lowered. After Kroger released its second quarterly report, the stock price fell more than 3% in the premarket, mainly because the company's same-store sales growth in the second quarter was significantly lower than market expectations and the year-round same-store sales guidelines were lowered, causing investors to worry about weak consumer spending and the company's future revenue growth prospects. The Cincinnati-based grocery store operator announced that its total sales for the second quarter reached $34.6 billion, up 2.1% year over year, exceeding general market expectations of $34.5 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (non-GAAP EPS) of $1.09 were not only higher than $1.04 in the same period last year, but also beat Wall Street's unanimous expectations of $1.04.
Key economic data and event forecasts
20:30 Beijing time: US CPI for August.
22:00 Beijing time: The initial value of the US Consumer Confidence Index for September at the University of Michigan.
At 01:00 Beijing time the next day: The total number of US drills in the US for the week ending September 11.