The Zhitong Finance App learned that Citibank released a research report saying that it is expected that even with strong seasonal demand from September to November, India's gold imports in 2026 will still fall below the level of 2025, reflecting high import tariffs, increased recycling volume, and high gold prices. The bank maintained a target price of $4,800 per ounce for 0-3 months.

The bank expects that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will be resolved in the fourth quarter of 2026, and that tariff increases will be reversed in the first quarter of 2027, which will further drive a rebound in gold imports in 2027.

As crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, pressure on foreign exchange reserves and current accounts is likely to continue. Therefore, the bank believes that the policy response is more likely to adopt measures to monetize gold rather than implement stricter import restrictions.

Due to weak physical import demand from India and other emerging markets, and limited participation in the Chinese retail market, these factors weighed down the price of gold in September. By the fourth quarter of 2026, the bank expects major favorable macroeconomic or geopolitical catalysts, such as the cooling of the US and Iran situation or the Federal Reserve's less hawkish stance, which will attract new investors to buy, which in turn will push the price of gold above the current spot level of 4,350 US dollars per ounce.

Disclaimer:Webull uses external vendor Google Translation Service for news translations where we endeavour to ensure these are correct, however, we recommend that you please double-check this information accordingly. Webull is not responsible for translation errors or issues.