According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 bps as scheduled in September, raising this year's growth and inflation forecasts. The bitmap and Walsh's statement all sent hawkish signals. Strong expectations and pressure from the market made raising interest rates a smooth choice for the Federal Reserve. The pace and magnitude of the Fed's subsequent rate hikes will largely depend on oil prices. This is difficult to predict, but given that the overall inflation rate may decline markedly at the beginning of next year, the reasons for continuing to raise interest rates should weaken at that time. We expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by another 25 bps during the year, and may stand still next year. Financial conditions in the US are currently difficult to meaningfully ease, and in a growth narrative, we should look for assets that are supported by fundamentals rather than just benefit from liquidity.

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