According to Woofun AI, although the price of Bitcoin barely remained around $76,500 on September 17, its core on-chain indicator 'total capital' recorded its first daily decline in 28 days, revealing the divergence between market surface stabilization and underlying valuation contraction.
This divergence is particularly evident at the on-chain data level. Glassnode's analytical framework defines $76,700 as the 'real market average' as a key on-chain cost benchmark reference. At press time, CryptoSlate data showed that Bitcoin's price was around $76,458, which is already slightly below that benchmark.
Notably, “total realized capital”, an indicator that estimates overall on-chain costs through the currency's last transaction price, experienced a turning point decline on September 15 after a 27-day upward cycle. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the decline in this indicator means a decrease in position valuation rather than an equal amount of cash flowing out of the blockchain, but this still reflects the weakness of market power.
Although there was no major price crash on September 17, the available data is insufficient to prove that demand has substantially recovered, and the market is still in a fragile balance.
In terms of capital flow, Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US market showed continuous negative signals. Farside Investors monitoring data shows that the ETF experienced a net outflow of US$450.4 million on September 15, followed by a net outflow of US$295.9 million on September 16.
However, it is necessary to be careful in interpreting this data: ETF flow data does not disclose specific investor identities, and since cryptocurrency ETF products support creation and redemption in cash or physical form, these net outflows are not directly equivalent to cash leaving the network, nor can they establish an absolute causal relationship with Bitcoin price changes.
Despite this, the withdrawal of capital for two consecutive days has heightened market concerns about insufficient demand, leaving prices without strong upward momentum.
The key to future trends is whether the bullish line of defense can be re-established. Glassnode notes that if Bitcoin fails to return above $76,700, the next important cost benchmark will move down to $71,300, which is the average purchase price for short-term holders. If it falls below this level, the $62,000-$65,000 range will form a stronger on-chain support area. The conditions for market recovery are clear: concerns about weak demand will be mitigated only when prices rise back to $76,700 for two consecutive trading days and 'total capital' rises again. Conversely, if it falls below the threshold again, the downtrend will be verified, and the market's focus will shift to $71,300. Currently, Bitcoin is still in the testing phase and has not yet come out of trouble.