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Chile, the world's largest supplier of copper, may be sluggish in copper production in 2026, and recovery expectations for the second half of the year have fallen short. Finance Minister Jorge Quiroz said that copper production is expected to drop by an average of 7% this year, far exceeding the 2.6% forecast previously predicted by the official agency Cochilco. He pointed out that due to factors such as the operating difficulties of the state-owned company Codelco, aging assets, and declining ore grade, it may take about two years for production to fully recover; although it is expected to rebound by 5.2% to 5.55 million tons in 2027, next year's growth will not be enough to make up for all this year's losses. BTG Pactual analysts warned that the market is paying too much attention to tariffs while ignoring the risk of geological deterioration and potential disruptions behind Chile's accounting for a quarter of global supply. This structural reduction in production is exacerbating the tight supply situation in the global copper market.
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Chile, the world's largest supplier of copper, may be sluggish in copper production in 2026, and recovery expectations for the second half of the year have fallen short. Finance Minister Jorge Quiroz said that copper production is expected to drop by an average of 7% this year, far exceeding the 2.6% forecast previously predicted by the official agency Cochilco. He pointed out that due to factors such as the operating difficulties of the state-owned company Codelco, aging assets, and declining ore grade, it may take about two years for production to fully recover; although it is expected to rebound by 5.2% to 5.55 million tons in 2027, next year's growth will not be enough to make up for all this year's losses. BTG Pactual analysts warned that the market is paying too much attention to tariffs while ignoring the risk of geological deterioration and potential disruptions behind Chile's accounting for a quarter of global supply. This structural reduction in production is exacerbating the tight supply situation in the global copper market.
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