The Zhitong Finance App learned that Daiwa released a research report stating that the first ICBC (01398) “holds” rating, with a target price of HK$7.8, which indicates that ICBC is a high-interest stock, but the current price is roughly reasonable. The bank expects ICBC's total operating revenue to increase 4% to 8% year on year from 2026 to 2028, and net profit to increase by about 3.1% to 6.6% year on year; the current price corresponds to 0.55 times the market account ratio expected in 2026.

The bank pointed out that ICBC is the world's largest bank in terms of total assets, accounting for 36% of loans to state-owned enterprises and infrastructure, and is defensive in the downward credit cycle; the net interest spread in 2025 is 1.28%, similar to the average of the four major state-owned banks of 1.29%, but time deposits account for a relatively high share, which favors the cost of debt to decline as old deposits mature, supporting the stabilization of interest spreads. The non-performing loan ratio fell from 1.38% in 2022 to 1.31% in 2025, and the provision coverage rate increased to 214%. Operating profit before provision can cover about 3.7 times impairment expenses, and credit costs are buffered.

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