The Zhitong Finance App learned that J.P. Morgan Chase released a research report saying that the “Policy Address” and Hong Kong's first “five-year plan” did not bring any major surprises. As far as the private housing market is concerned, despite many proposals from various parties, the only measure that can be described as marginally beneficial is to exempt families with newborns from HK$20,000 stamp duty. However, the bank believes that the move is aimed at encouraging childbearing rather than boosting the housing market (given that property prices have risen 12% during the year).
As for the “Five-Year Plan,” the key performance indicators proposed were slightly lower than anticipated. The policy focus is still on speeding up the development of the “Northern Metropolitan Area”, which is beneficial to Henderson Land (00012) and Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016), but this is already anticipated by the market. In the short term, affected by interest rate hikes and uncertainties related to foreign direct investment (ODI), the bank expects Hong Kong Properties, China to maintain a weak trend; in comparison, it is more optimistic about leasing shares of Swire Properties (01972), Wharf Land (01997) and Hong Kong Land.
For the banking sector, the “Five-Year Plan” sends a positive signal as it strengthens Hong Kong, China's position as a major financial hub and highlights the policy's continued commitment to the internationalization of the RMB. Relevant measures should benefit wealth management and corporate and institutional banking (CIB) /financial market business. Among them, Standard Chartered Group (02888) and HSBC Holdings (00005) will be the main beneficiaries.
Meanwhile, plans to support the “Northern Metropolitan Area” and technology financing are expected to drive bank loan growth in the long term; given the more stable capital situation, BOCHK (02388) may have better upside growth than its peers. However, since no new measures have been announced in the plan, and the implementation details of the long-term goals are still unclear, the bank is not expected to raise the earnings forecast per share until the clarity of policy implementation is improved, and believes that the stock price reaction may be relatively lackluster in the short term.