Last week, you might have seen that Gek Terna S.A. (ATH:GEKTERNA) released its half-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.9% to €42.88 in the past week. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of €2.1b coming in 4.7% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of €1.39, in line with analyst appraisals. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the seven analysts covering Gek Terna, is for revenues of €2.58b in 2026. This implies a disturbing 36% reduction in Gek Terna's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be €1.35, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €2.70b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.64 in 2026. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.
Check out our latest analysis for Gek Terna
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the €48.71 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Gek Terna analyst has a price target of €62.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €40.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 58% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 17% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.4% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Gek Terna is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Gek Terna. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Gek Terna analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Gek Terna (1 is significant) you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.