US President Trump reiterated on social media this week that the rise in global diesel prices was mainly caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, not the war between the US and Iran. However, estimates compiled by Bloomberg and verified by diesel traders show that the reduction in diesel supply due to the war in Iran exceeds that of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. According to estimates by energy analysis companies Energy Aspects, Kpler, and Vortexa, the average daily oil production in the Middle East from March to August decreased by about 770,000 barrels compared to the same period in 2025, while Russian oil production decreased by about 350,000 barrels per day during the same period. Eugene Lindell, head of refined oil products at FGE Nexanteca, stated: “In terms of pure volume, Iran is bigger.” He said that a further reduction of hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude oil from the market “turned an already extremely tight market into a historically tight market”. Rachel Zimba, a part-time senior researcher at the New American Security Center, a Washington think tank, said that the shortage of supplies caused by the Iran conflict is the biggest driver of shortages and soaring prices of diesel and refined oil products, and damage to Russian refineries has exacerbated these trends. She believes that if a cease-fire can lead to refinery repairs and the return of Russian products, it can relieve some of the pressure, but it will not be able to completely solve the shortage of supply.

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