[Editor-in-chief Guan Shi]
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Despite being hawkish, the market trend was better than expected, and Hong Kong stocks bottomed out last week and rebounded.
There are signs of easing between the US and Iran. Iran: told by the mediator that the US is ready to negotiate and reach an agreement with Iran, and is “serious” awaiting a response from the Trump administration. However, it is also important to pay attention to whether the US will take action against the Houthis, and then the Hussein will attack Saudi Arabia again in retaliation.
There are also expectations for the direction of China and the US. China will lead a delegation to the US from September 19 to 23 to hold economic and trade negotiations with the US. The new round of Sino-US economic and trade negotiations will help ease the tense pattern of bilateral trade and help strengthen the exchange rate.
Overall, the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike on the market is over; Trump's strong support for technology combined with the contraction in the Middle East has rekindled market sentiment.
There was a lot of technological catalysis this week. The Alibaba 2026 Yunqi Conference was held in Hangzhou, focusing on disassembling the “five-layer full-stack” technology around models, agents and Agentic Cloud; the GMIF 2026 Global Memory Industry Innovation Summit was held in Shenzhen with the theme “AI Storage Drives the Future”; the AICC Artificial Intelligence Computing Conference, the Global AI Chip Summit GACS, and the 5th Global Digital Trade Fair. Focus on large models, optical fiber tenders, and varieties related to computing power construction.
In addition, according to CCTV financial reports, AI has driven high-capacity models to skyrocket, and some spot stocks have skyrocketed several times. MLCC: in the low capacity segment, domestic leaders increased 30-50%, Japanese business leaders increased 80% +, and large customers are more willing to accept it; in the high-volume segment, domestic and foreign leaders all increased 50-80%.
Pharmaceuticals were very popular last week, and the news was once again catalyzed. According to reports, the US Treasury Department is drafting new rules for biotechnology investment in China. The plan being discussed may allow US pharmaceutical companies to continue to introduce most common therapeutic drugs from Chinese companies. Anthropic is also joining the AI pharmaceutical team to add AI pharmaceuticals.
[This week's gold stocks]
Jiantao laminate board (01888)
Equipment supply bottlenecks lock in the expansion of production capacity, and the supply and demand pattern of glass fiber cloth and copper foil continues to be tight: the increase in production capacity of glass fiber cloth and copper foil for PCBs is limited by the delivery cycle of key equipment. Jiantao Laminate (KB) anticipates that the shortage of fiberglass cloth will continue through 2027, and there is significant potential for price increases. In terms of copper foil, high-end HVLP products rely on surface treatment equipment from MiFun in Japan, and the current delivery period is 9-12 months; although mid-range and low-end products are considering introducing local equipment vendors, the overall supply elasticity is still being suppressed.
The pace of expansion of glass fiber cloth production is clear, and the price differentiation of segmented categories is intensifying: KB plans to add 450-500 Toyota looms in 2026, and another 1,100 units in 2027 (equivalent to about 100 units per month). On the price side, the increase in thin E glass fiber cloth (1080) in September was significantly greater than that of thick type (7628), while the increase between the two was basically the same in August, reflecting a stronger demand for thin cloth in high-end applications such as AI servers and high-speed switches.
The implementation of special glass fiber production lines is progressing simultaneously with customer certification: KB will add 4 new special glass fiber production lines such as LDK1/2/CTE in 2026, and 2 more by the end of 2026. At present, its special glass fiber cloth has passed the qualification certification of six new CCL (copper-clad plate) customers, laying the foundation for the release of high-end products.
HVLP copper foil technology is iterative and the high-end gross margin remains high: KB's HVLP 1/2/3 generation copper foil has passed customer certification, and is currently promoting HVLP 4th generation verification. In terms of gross margin, LDK1 is about 40%, LDK2 is about 50%, and low-CTE products are 50% +. The profitability of high-end materials is significantly superior to traditional categories, forming the core driving force for future profit structure optimization.
[Industry Watch]
According to some market sources, Tesla's mass production is speeding up, parts are being prepared first, and production capacity will increase in September. The slope is expected to be very high by the end of the year.
Tesla's mass production pace: The original plan was to complete the automated transformation of the production line by the end of December, including the main body line assembly/inspection production line, rotary module and linear module assembly line, with a target weekly production of 2000-2,500 units.
Combined with the latest developments, it is expected to advance to the end of November to the beginning of December, achieve stable weekly production of 1000-1,500 units in December, and begin climbing towards the target weekly production. Actual weekly production schedule - August: 100-150 units; September-October: 400-500 units; November-December: 1000-1500 units. Parts need to be prepared in advance and 1 quarter of safety inventory, so Tesla increased the frequency and quantity of orders placed in September-November.
Market catalysts: At the end of September and the second week of October, core suppliers went to North America to communicate production capacity.
In addition, domestic consumer robots have also begun mass production. The 9.20 Qiyuan robot press conference exceeded expectations. The price of the two robots, Q1 and T1, was only 19999 yuan, so there is a high possibility that it will be sold out. Companion sales are just the beginning, and the housework model Prime Agent will also be released within the year, so it's worth looking forward to.
Hong Kong stocks focus on Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) and Joyson Electronics (00699).
[Data View]
According to data released by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the total number of outstanding contracts in the Hang Seng Futures Index (September) was 129,136, and the net number of outstanding positions was 39,190. Hang Seng Futures refers to the settlement date of September 29, 2026.
The Hang Seng Index is at 24,751 points. The bull-bear concentration area is close to the central axis, and Hong Kong stocks are hesitant. Walsh and FOMC's hawkish statements, combined with a lack of transparency about future policies, added a risk premium to the price of risky assets. Trends in US stocks affect the direction of Hong Kong stocks, and the Hang Seng Index is bearish this week.
[Editor's Statement]
Over the weekend, Intel CEO Chen Liwu pointed out the next five major bottlenecks in the AI industry. The logic author agreed. The excerpts are as follows:
The five major bottlenecks are memory, electricity, high-speed interconnection, optical communication, and liquid cooling. Memory was the first to become scarce. According to Lipbutan, the price of memory has increased 5-7 times, and the supply shortage will increase further in 2027. Memory accounts for 70%-80% of the cost of low-cost smartphones and laptops; even if more GPUs are produced, AI servers cannot run if they lack memory. If there is insufficient power, it is difficult for data centers to operate; if the interconnection speed is insufficient, GPUs cannot work together; without proper cooling, the hardware cannot release full performance.
When industry bottlenecks occur, pricing power is transferred to where supply is most scarce. The bottleneck in the first stage is the GPU; the second stage is memory, networking, and optical communication; and the third stage is power and cooling. The huge benefits of the AI era will not necessarily come from the most famous companies, but will be born on a bottleneck circuit that no one can bypass.