Bitcoin released key technical signals on Sunday, and its weekly closing price broke the 50-week moving average for the first time since November 2025, according to Woofun AI. This technical pattern, which spanned a 45-week empty window, was viewed by analyst Alex Thorne as a strong hint that the current bear market low may have been established.
Historical data provides solid support for this view. In the bear cycle that has ended, Bitcoin has risen above the 50-week moving average 13 times, only 2 of which followed a new low, and both occurred during the downward trend from 2021 to 2022. Looking more broadly, in the 5-round bear market that fell below this moving average, there were 4 rounds that successfully returned above the moving average after bottoming out.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that as long-term support, the 200-week moving average has fallen below this level only 56 times in 642 weekly closures since its introduction; while the 50-week moving average is often used as a rebound cap to limit gains until the end of the maximum retracement. The performance of the current round of the market at the support level is very similar to the characteristics of the bear market in 2015 and 2018.
Looking back at specific points in the current cycle, Bitcoin fell below the 50-week moving average on November 16, 2025, and then hit a bear low of $58,525 on June 30, 2026. Compared to the high of $124,824 set in October 2025, the cumulative decline was 53.1%. The price has since rebounded 39%, and Sunday's closing price was fixed at $78,786, 3.0% higher than the 50-week moving average and 23.9% higher than the 200-week moving average (corresponding value of $65,487).
The current transaction price of Bitcoin is $81,341. If it continues to stabilize and break through these two key moving averages, the probability that a bearish low will be established will increase dramatically. However, the market has not completely ruled out the possibility of another bottom, and some believe that the lowest point may occur in October. The trend over the next few weeks will finally verify whether the June low is the bottom of the current round of the market, or just a midway rebound.