Deutsche Bank said that despite large fluctuations in commodity prices and interest rates this year, the overall global foreign exchange market is still relatively calm, and it is expected that this pattern will continue until the end of the year. In terms of direction, the bank is optimistic that the yen will continue to be relatively strong in the cross market. At the same time, it is expected that the EUR/USD will still be dominated by range-bound fluctuations: the resilience of global economic growth and the potential downside risk of the US dollar limit the downside of the euro, while the Fed's interest rate hike and high energy prices suppress its room for growth. Strategically, Deutsche Bank still favors arbitrage trading, but it is more cautious and selective than its broad position of going long since the beginning of the year; as the attractiveness of real interest rates in some emerging markets increased, the bank began increasing some of its positions to go long in emerging market currencies and short the dollar. Deutsche Bank pointed out that whether the situation in the Middle East can progress peacefully before the end of the year will be an important variable affecting whether this more careful foreign exchange strategy will work.

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