The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that it covered Xiyin-W (00625) for the first time and gave it a “recommended” rating, with a target price of HK$49.14. The bank expects the company to achieve operating income of US$428.452/47.6 billion in 2026-2028, +2.3%/+5.5%/+5.4% YoY; net profit to mother of US$14.0/20.5/2.34 billion, or -32.3%/+46.5%/+14.4% YoY. Referring to comparable company estimates, and considering that SHEIN has more room for platform-based growth, the 2027 forecast is 13 times PE. The bank believes that short-term trade policies disrupt performance, and that long-term supply chains and flow barriers support platform-based growth.
The main views of Huachuang Securities are as follows:
Global e-commerce is expanding steadily, and China's cross-border e-commerce is reshaping the competitive landscape
Global retail e-commerce sales in 2025 are about 6.86 trillion US dollars, and are expected to increase to 9.71 trillion US dollars in 2030. The e-commerce penetration rate continues to increase; Chinese e-commerce platforms accelerate globalization, and SHEIN and Temu are rapidly rising, driving the restructuring of the global cross-border e-commerce competition pattern. At the same time, the global cross-border e-commerce policy environment has changed markedly. Markets such as the US and the European Union have successively tightened their small-value package tariff policies, the low cost dividends of traditional direct cross-border mail have gradually subsided, and tariffs, overseas warehouse preparation and compliance costs have risen markedly. Industry competition has moved from simply relying on the cost advantages of China's supply chain to comprehensive capacity competition for supply chain efficiency, global compliance, localized operations, and brand traffic.
SHEIN has grown from a cross-border fast fashion brand to the world's largest online fashion destination
Relying on the advantages of China's supply chain and rapid global expansion of Internet operations, the company served about 160 markets in 2025, had 273 million active customers, achieved net revenue of 41.85 billion US dollars, and became the world's largest online fashion destination. Along with the expansion of scale, the company's operating boundaries continue to expand: first-party self-operated businesses undertake product differentiation and consumer mentality building, third-party shopping malls open up global traffic and fulfillment capabilities to external merchants, Xcelerator further exports supply chain capabilities to brands and designers, and SHEIN is expanding from a cross-border DTC retailer to a global fashion infrastructure of “proprietary brand+e-commerce platform+supply chain service”.
The small order quick return supply chain and global traffic operation establish the dual core barriers of SHEIN
On the supply chain side, the company connects demand insight, product development and flexible manufacturing with “small-batch testing+dynamic rebates” through LATR (large-scale automated small order fast reverse) to maintain high inventory efficiency while maintaining high inventory efficiency at the same time; about 7,500 contract manufacturers and more than 1,700 self-developed software systems further digitize, standardize and schedule distributed production capacity, and the huge order scale and flexible supply chain form a continuously strengthened scale effect.
On the traffic side, SheIn continues to grasp the migration of overseas traffic channels from Google search, influencer marketing, Pinterest, Facebook/Instagram to TikTok, and further accumulates users through affiliate marketing, massive medium- and long-tail talent, and app credit systems. Long-term traffic operation accumulation has been transformed into global brand recognition and hundreds of millions of consumer bases, and together with supply chain capabilities, it forms a competitive barrier that is difficult for the company to replicate.
Platforms and services open up a second growth curve
SHEIN launched a third-party shopping mall in the second half of 2022, and gradually formed three models of proxy operation, semi-hosting, and autonomous operation to open up existing traffic, trading, marketing and contract fulfillment capabilities to third-party merchants; third-party supply also helped the company accelerate expansion into categories with weak coverage of the original supply chain, such as home, beauty care, and 3C.
In 2025, the company further upgraded SHEIN X to Xcelerator to export design transformation, quick return of small orders, supply chain management and global sales capabilities to external brands and designers. The bank believes that SHEIN has gradually expanded from a cross-border retailer that mainly operates its own fast fashion to a “self-operated+platform” model. Short-term trade policies disrupt performance, and it is optimistic that supply chains and traffic barriers support platform-based growth in the long term.
Risk warning: Overseas trade policy and regulatory risks; progress in platformization falls short of expectations; rising traffic costs; intensifying industry competition.