The Zhitong Finance App learned that on September 23, the Asian Development Bank released the “2026 Asian Development Outlook (September Edition)”, raising the economic growth forecast for Asia-Pacific developing economies in 2026 to 5.0% from 4.9% in July, and maintaining the 2027 forecast at 5.1%. The ADB said that although geopolitical tension and the growing El Niño phenomenon are driving up energy and food prices, strong investment and government stimulus measures, compounded by the global artificial intelligence (AI) investment cycle, are driving steady growth in technology exports and are providing support for economic growth.
In terms of prices, the bank slightly lowered this year's regional inflation forecast from 4.3% to 4.2%, on the grounds that some price stabilization measures are mitigating the impact of higher energy prices; however, the 2027 inflation forecast was raised from 3.4% to 3.5%. The forecast for both years was higher than 3.0% in 2025, indicating that inflationary pressure has not subsided.
At the same time, the report warns that the region's growth and inflation prospects face two major risks. First, the escalation of conflict, especially the escalation of the Middle East conflict, may cause global energy prices to continue to fluctuate at high levels and spill over to other commodities. Second, the strong El Niño phenomenon is predicted to continue until the first quarter of 2027, and may raise energy demand and curb agricultural production, thereby driving up fuel and food prices. Furthermore, the sharp correction in AI-related stock valuations, the tightening of the financial environment, and another rise in trade policy uncertainty posed further downside risks.
The bank said that most central banks in the region kept their policy interest rates unchanged this year to achieve a balance between controlling the risk of inflation and supporting economic growth, but due to differences in domestic conditions in each country, future policy paths are expected to diverge.