The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongxing Securities released a research report saying that in August 2026, the number of express delivery service companies nationwide completed about 16.60 billion units, up 2.8% year on year, and the growth rate decreased slightly from 4.1% last month. Among them, the same city parts business volume decreased 5.5% year on year, and the off-site parts business increased 3.7% year on year. The bank believes that the strength and sustainability of the industry's anti-domestic roll is expected to exceed expectations this year. Short-term fluctuations in single ticket prices will not change the long-term positive trend of the industry, and the increase in industry prices is the most intuitive proof of the effectiveness of anti-domestic rolls. The bank expects that price increases will bring more profit margins to express delivery companies during the peak season.
Dongxing Securities's main views are as follows:
The year-on-year growth rate of the number of pieces fell to a low level during the year
In August 2026, the national express delivery service enterprise completed business volume of about 16.60 billion units, up 2.8% year on year. The growth rate decreased slightly from 4.1% last month. Among them, the same-city component business volume decreased 5.5% year on year, and the offsite business increased 3.7% year on year.
In August, the industry component volume growth rate declined slightly from month to month. Shentong continued to lead the growth rate but declined slightly from month to month; Yuantong's component volume growth rate bucked the trend; Yunda and SF Express's business volume declined year over year. Overall, in August, the industry volume growth rate fell to a low level during the year, and Yuantong's demand for market share is still strong.
The anti-internal volume continues to gain strength, and the price side remains stable
In terms of price, the industry's single ticket price increased 4.0% year on year in August, and the price index increased steadily year on year. Compared to the previous month, it was basically the same.
In terms of Tongda headquarters, in August, Shentong's single ticket revenue increased 3.4% year on year, and the increase narrowed; Yunda increased 10.4% year on year, maintaining a high level of increase; Yuantong fell 4.7% year on year, and the decline widened. The unit price of round parts dropped significantly in May and remained stable since then. The bank believes this is due to changes in caliber. On a month-on-month basis, Shentong's single ticket revenue increased by 0.07 yuan month-on-month, which is a significant increase. The unit price of Shentong's July items was low and there was a clear rebound in August, probably due to delays in confirming some revenue in July; Yunda's single ticket revenue fell 0.02 yuan month-on-month, and Yuantong fell 0.01 yuan month-on-month.
Looking at the unit volume and unit price data, the price side of the industry remained stable in August against the backdrop of a low growth rate in item volume, and the internal roll back had a continuous positive effect. The bank believes that the current level of competition in the industry is manageable. Shentong and Yuantong seek a steady increase in market share, while Yunda focuses on stabilizing the stock of customers.
Industry regulation remains strong, and some regions ushered in price increases in September
After entering September, industry supervision was further strengthened. From September 8 to 11, leaders of the State Post Office visited the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions for research, emphasizing the continuous management of “internal rolling” competition in the industry, and thoroughly investigating work conditions such as terminal payment guarantees. On September 20, express delivery companies such as Zhongtong and Yuantong all issued notices requiring all outlets and partner customers in Jiangsu to uniformly increase express delivery service fees by no less than 0.1 yuan/ticket; the next day, the Anhui region also welcomed price increases.
Risk warning: the industry price war intensifies; the duration of anti-domestic demand is lower than expected; labor costs are rising; policy changes, etc.