The Zhitong Finance App notes that Jason Karakannis, an early investor of Uber (UBER.US), has bought Wenyuan Zhixing (WRD.US), PONY.US (PONY.US), Lucid Group (LCID.US), and Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US), betting that the competition surrounding robot taxi fleets will spawn acquisitions. He expects all four companies to be acquired within 24 months, and the investment as a combination will double in less than two years.
Karakannis has previously invested in Uber, Robinhood, Thumbtack, and Calm. His new stock selection spans two major segments of the autonomous driving business: Wenyuan Zhixing and My Little Pony develop driverless technology and operate robotic taxis, while Lucid and Rivian prepare cars for large-scale fleets.
Bet on the wave of robot taxi mergers and acquisitions
Karakannis said on X, “Based on the tremendous progress Tesla, Waymo, and Uber are making, the integration of the autonomous driving sector is imminent,” “I believe these four companies will be acquired within the next 24 months, and I expect that, as a combination, my investment will double in less than two years.”
He called these deals “small bets,” and said he sees them as an investment of 1 to 4 years. In contrast, he usually buys stocks to hold them for more than 10 years. Karakannis said he doesn't do day trading, invited others to review his arguments, and mentioned that he has other investments in autonomous driving, including private companies Zipline and Autolane.
Last week, in response to Lucid's new European fleet deal, he made a broader prediction: “All car companies will now become robot taxi companies!” This prediction of a takeover represents only his opinion; the sale of any of his four stock selections has yet to be announced.
Wenyuan Zhixing and My Little Pony Zhixing compete internationally
Wenyuan Zhixing and My Little Pony Zhixing are both expanding through partnerships with Uber. This month, Wenyuan Zhixing, Uber and team partner AVOMO obtained Spain's first national L4 autonomous passenger vehicle license to operate in preparation for its robot taxi service in Madrid. This will be the first deployment of Wenyuan Zhixing and Uber in Europe. As of July 31, Wenyuan Zhixing reported about 3,400 L4 autonomous vehicles worldwide, including more than 1,800 robot taxis.
My Little Pony and Uber expand their partnership and plan to deploy more than 2,000 robot taxis in five European cities. This month, My Little Pony and Verne launched a fully driverless test for passengers on public roads in Zagreb, Croatia. My Little Pony's fleet reached 1975 robot taxis in the second quarter, aiming to surpass 3,500 by the end of the year.
Lucid and Rivian win big robot taxi order
Lucid's robo-taxi ambition welcomed its second largest customer last week. European mobility platform Bolt said it plans to deploy at least 25,000 autonomous vehicles built on Lucid's upcoming Midsize platform. The vehicles will use Nvidia's Hyperion architecture, and Bolt will own and operate the fleet.
The deal is superimposed on Lucid's US partnership with Uber and autonomous vehicle developer Nuro. Uber has promised at least 35,000 Lucid robot taxis, including Gravity SUVs and future Midsize models.
Rivian also has its own deal with Uber. Uber or its fleet partners plan to buy 10,000 fully automated R2 SUVs, which will be in service from 2028, with the option to buy an additional 40,000. Uber also plans to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian by 2031, depending on the completion of autonomous driving milestones.
Tesla, Waymo, and Uber add up
The scope of competition that Karakanis refers to far exceeds his four stock selections. Tesla has begun deploying a small number of Cybercab in Austin, while Alphabet's Waymo continues to expand its driverless mobility service. Baidu said last week that its radish sprint vehicle is being tested completely driverless on Hong Kong roads, with commercial operations as a future goal.
Tesla's Cybercab is also facing a regulatory test: US security officials are asking it to explain how this vehicle without a steering wheel, pedals, and rearview mirror can meet federal standards without exemptions.