The Zhitong Finance App notes that the historical rules of the US midterm election year show that the stock market will clearly rise at the end of the year. An analysis of the monthly returns of the S&P 500 index from 1950 to 2025 compiled by Carson Group found that the average performance in October was the strongest.
According to the data, October usually recorded an increase of 3.0%, and during these years, it rose 73.7% of the time. It ranked second in November, with an average increase of 2.7%, with a probability of increase of 78.9%.
The contrast with the earlier months is stark. The weakest performance was in June, with an average drop of 2.1%, and a rise of only 36.8% of the time during the midterm elections. September also tends to lag behind, with an average decline of 0.8%; only 47.4% of the sample recorded an increase. January and May also recorded moderate average declines. The March and July handouts were small but positive average returns, while December usually rose 0.8%.
As the next midterm election cycle approaches, these year-end rules are drawing attention. Carson Group's Ryan Detrick highlighted outstanding records for October and November. These data don't guarantee any results for the current cycle, but they help explain why as the calendar moves from September to a historically stronger window period, some market participants have begun to focus on position layout.
Seasonality is only one of many variables, such as valuation, policy, and growth, but the long-term pattern of the midterm election year is still a reference frequently cited by investors tracking the political calendar.