The Zhitong Finance App learned that UBS released a research report saying that with the narrowing capacity gap and cost advantage, the global competitiveness of China's artificial intelligence model has received more recognition, but recent developments have made competitive prospects more complicated and dragged down the momentum of listed model companies. The bank maintains a “buy” rating for both MiniMax-W (00100) and Smart Spectrum (02513).
The bank pointed out that the regulatory landscape continues to evolve, discussions on the potential limitations of the open source weighting model increase uncertainty in overseas adoption, while global leaders' tightening of anti-distillation measures and US policy paying more attention to industrial grade distillation also raises questions about its ability to catch up. The cost efficiency advantage also increasingly depends on the task. Especially for complex and long-term tasks, overseas cutting-edge models can partially offset the price premium per token through higher token efficiency and task success rate.
The bank believes that China's AI laboratory is expanding its overseas layout, including MiniMax's global enterprise adoption, vertical fine-tuning, and cloud deployment cooperation, and the recent collaboration between smart spectrum and global cloud service providers, and Kimi K3's listing on AWS Bedrock, which will help to better capitalize on the rise in global open source weight model adoption.
The bank expects that the price of each token on the quantitative side will continue to deflate, while the pricing capacity at the cutting edge of capabilities will last longer; recent financing from Chinese laboratories will also help expand computing power and support the next generation of large-scale model training. The bank believes that continuous model release may help repair investor sentiment. Potential catalysts include DeepSeek V4.1 Pro, Kimi K3.1, MiniMax M3 Pro, and Smart Spectrum GLM-5.5/6.0.