According to the weekly report, ANZ, like other local banks, has revised its forecast for New Zealand's recent inflation to reflect the recent rise in oil prices and other price pressures. The inflation rate is expected to slow to 3.7% in the third quarter, compared to 3.9% previously. However, the inflation rate is now expected to accelerate to 4% by the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the previous forecast of 3.5%. It is expected to fall to 2.5% by the second quarter of 2027, compared with the previous forecast of 1.7%. The year-end outlook assumes that pressure on fuel prices will continue and spread to fuel-intensive non-trading sectors. After that, prices of non-traded goods may deflate more slowly than previously anticipated, while administrative price inflation will remain at a high level.

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