According to Woofun AI, interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages in the US soared 19 basis points to 7.45% in a single day. This change confirmed by the “Mortgage News Daily” survey is being transmitted to the crypto market through US bond yields, causing sharp fluctuations in asset prices.
The pressure at the macro level stemmed from the overall sell-off in the US government bond market. According to CNBC data, the yield on 30-year bonds has risen significantly from 5.99% at the end of February. The outbreak of the war in Iran and the Federal Reserve's rate hike in September have accelerated this process. Matthew Graham, chief operating officer of “Mortgage News Daily”, pointed out that since September 10, the Fed's statement, strong economic data, and rising oil prices have been the main drivers, but he acknowledged that the sell-off on Thursday afternoon lacked a clear incentive; it was only due to large numbers of sellers leaving the market.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped from 4.96% on Tuesday to 5.18% on Thursday. The “Kobesi Letter” blamed inflation for the sharp decline, pointing out that Brent crude oil is above $105 per barrel, diesel prices are record, and consumers expect 4.6% inflation over the next year.
The crypto market is sensitive to this, and high yields raise the opportunity cost of holding BTC. On Wednesday, the price of BTC fell below $84,000 as 10-year US Treasury yields topped 5%. BTC recovered to $84,590 on Friday, achieving a slight rebound. Other mainstream coins showed stronger performance, with SOL rising 2.2% and XRP rising 3.4%.
The core question now is whether crypto investors can withstand this risk free return squeeze for a long time while US government bond yields remain above 5%. This is yet another severe stress test faced by crypto assets following traditional financial austerity cycles. Stay tuned for further in-depth analysis on the X platform and YouTube channel.