The Zhitong Finance App learned that Bernstein recently released an in-depth report on Lanqi Technology (06809), maintaining the “outperforming the market” rating and raising the target price for A shares to 400 yuan and the target price for H shares to HK$520. According to the report, as AI applications move from a single round of question and answer to an intelligent model that continuously performs tasks, demand for server CPUs, memory configurations, and high-speed interface chips will increase simultaneously, and Lanqi Technology is expected to benefit from the two main lines of MRDIMM upgrade and CXL memory expansion.
The core logic that Bernstein is optimistic about is not that AI computation will shift from GPUs to CPUs, but rather that intelligence brings more work supporting model reasoning. When an agent completes a task, it often needs to retrieve data, call a database, run code, operate a browser, and save the session state. The accelerator host CPU needs to complete provisioning and scheduling. The sandbox CPU is responsible for tool execution, and the general server CPU processes search, databases, and enterprise applications. As these tasks increase, the number of CPU cores and memory requirements will rise.
The report points out that when CPU computing power is increased, if the memory fails to provide data in a timely manner, the additional computing power and the efficiency of expensive GPUs may be limited. For cloud vendors, as long as increasing CPU and memory configurations can increase the effective output of the entire cluster, there is a continuous investment incentive. HBM still serves high-bandwidth accelerator computing, while local DDR mainly undertakes data frequently accessed by the CPU, and the two types of demand can grow in parallel.
In terms of market size measurement, Bernstein uses the framework of “server CPU shipment volume × number of DIMMs configured per CPU × value of each memory interface chip”. The report predicts that after excluding Nvidia's own CPUs, global server CPU shipments will increase from about 30.6 million in 2025 to about 89.3 million in 2030; the average number of memory cards configured per CPU will rise from about 9 to 13.6; and the average value of interface chips in a single memory will rise from about 5.9 US dollars to 16.3 US dollars.
After the three factors are combined, the global DDR memory module chipset market is expected to expand from about 1.6 billion US dollars in 2025 to about 20 billion US dollars in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of about 65%. Bernstein also suggested that this figure is the overall space of the industry and is not equivalent to the revenue that Lanqi Technology can obtain. Actual implementation still depends on customer allocation, product penetration rate, and company market share.
MRDIMM is seen as the key to the growth elasticity of Lanqi's main business. Compared to traditional RDIMMs, which usually call one rank at a time, MRDIMM can supply two ranks in parallel through dedicated interface chips such as MRCD and MDB, thereby significantly increasing the memory bandwidth available on the CPU side. According to the report's estimates, the value of an ordinary DDR5 RDIMM related chip is about 6 to 7 US dollars, while the value of an MRDIMM related chip can reach 50 to 70 US dollars.
Bernstein predicts that by 2030, MRDIMM will account for about 25% of server DDR memory chip shipments, and its MRCD and MDB products will contribute a large share of the market value. To put it bluntly, this means that the company's growth will not only depend on an increase in the number of servers, but will also benefit from the increase in the value of a single memory interface chip. However, MRDIMM is more suitable for application scenarios where memory requests are intensive and bandwidth is close to saturation. It still needs to go through CPU, motherboard, firmware, cooling, and machine certification, and its penetration rate is yet to be verified by the customer's actual deployment.
In addition to MRDIMM, the CXL memory expansion is also an additional opportunity that Bernstein is optimistic about. Lanqi already has products that support CXL 2.0, PCIe 5.0, DDR4, and DDR5. CXL can help next-generation servers reuse part of DDR4 memory, expand capacity at a lower cost, and is suitable for storing pending agent environments, vector data and caches accessed at low frequency.
The report estimates that under specific price assumptions, the cost of 128GB native DDR5 is about 3,500 US dollars, while the solution to reuse DDR4 and configure a controller and expansion card costs about 920 US dollars. Bernstein predicts that the DDR4 multiplexing-related CXL controller market will grow from about 180 million US dollars in 2027 to about 8.2 billion US dollars in 2030, and the total CXL chip market size is expected to be close to 9.9 billion US dollars.
The competitive landscape is also an important support for Lanqi to obtain high valuations. According to data quoted in the report, Lanqi, Renesas, and Rambus together account for more than 90% of the global core memory interface chip market, and Lanqi's share is about 37%. The industry usually takes 18 to 24 months from chip design to customer certification and mass production introduction, and long-term verification and stable supply capacity constitute high barriers.
In terms of valuation, Bernstein expects Lanqi Technology's earnings per share in 2026 and 2027 to be 3.44 yuan and 5.69 yuan, respectively. According to the report, the target price of 400 yuan reflects the profit potential of the MRDIMM and CXL product cycles from 2027 to 2028. Subsequently, MRDIMM customer certification and batch shipping, CXL from trial to procurement, gross margin performance, and changes in technology routes such as DDR6 and LPDDR will be key indicators for verifying the company's growth logic.