According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin bucked the trend and climbed from about $58,000 in the summer to a high of $86,000 in September against the backdrop of macro-austerity where the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates. This abnormal trend has drawn deep market attention. Matthew Siegel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, and Chris Giancarlo, the former chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, have broken down this phenomenon, which deviates from traditional financial logic, from the perspectives of microliquidity and macrofinance, respectively. The core conflict is why BTC is showing strong upward momentum in anticipation of tightening dollar liquidity. The opinions of the two experts together point to fundamental changes in the supply and demand structure.
Siegel attributed the nearly $30,000 increase in price to a complete exhaustion of sellers' strength rather than being driven by a single major event. A number of technical indicators tracked by VanEck triggered upward signals during the summer, confirming the judgment that the market was exhausted.
It is worth noting that the bond repurchase plan announced later by the US Treasury Department further catalyzed a rebound in prices. Judging from correlation analysis, there is no continuous positive correlation between BTC and bond yields, but it is negatively correlated with the US Dollar Index (DXY) and positively correlated with money supply.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the M2 money supply began to accelerate three quarters ago, and BTC usually lags behind in responding to this change in liquidity, which provides positive support for the mid-term trend.
Although Siegel warned that the high interest rate environment is putting pressure on any asset, he pointed out that BTC currently remains around $78,000 and is stable above the critical 'critical' line of the 50-week moving average, and the technical side remains optimistic.
Furthermore, demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT.US) is expected to pick up as the dominance of cyclical options trading recedes, thereby reshaping the market structure.
Giancarlo revealed the hidden inflationary logic behind interest rate hikes from a macrofiscal perspective in an interview with “Bitcoin Magazine” on September 24. He believes that the Fed's interest rate hike directly caused the government to bear higher interest costs on debt, forcing the government to maintain operations by issuing more bonds, thereby increasing market concerns about the long-term depreciation of fiat currencies. In a context of huge government spending and difficulties for policymakers to control currency surpluses, BTC highlights its unique scarcity value due to its pre-set supply caps. Giancaro likened BTC to gold, emphasizing its role as a safe haven for scarce assets outside of the fiat money system. When increased demand for financing is compounded by expectations of currency depreciation, the appeal of assets that cannot be arbitrarily expanded by policymakers, such as BTC, increases significantly.
This analysis based on fiscal sustainability explains why in the interest rate hike cycle, BTC's rebound was not a contradiction, but rather a rational hedge against fiat credit dilution by the market.
Taken together, the current market shows the dual characteristics of technical optimism and macro-logical self-agreement. The BTC price stabilized above the 50-week moving average, confirming the effectiveness of important support levels in previous market cycles. Siegel pointed out that the current rebound is strictly in line with Bitcoin's quadrennial cycle, and the market volatility has decreased by about 50%. As the adoption of BTC by institutional investors continues to increase, this trend of institutionalization is expected to further reduce volatility, gradually move BTC away from the label of a highly volatile speculative asset, and evolve towards a more stable macro-allocation of assets.
This shift not only strengthens BTC's position in the current financial system, but also provides a new frame of reference for future asset pricing in a complex macro environment.