The Zhitong Finance App learned that the China Index Research Institute issued an article stating that on August 28, the reform of the commercial housing sales system was officially implemented, the pre-sale threshold was raised to the peak of the main structure, the personal mortgage loan issuance node was delayed until completion and filing, and existing housing sales were further promoted. One month after the implementation of the new policy, judging from market performance in September, sales volume and price generally continued the previous operating trend, and the direct impact of the policy on the short-term trading market is not obvious. In contrast, there have been some notable changes on the supply side and the land market. Some core cities are speeding up the pace of obtaining pre-sale certificates for projects, while housing companies' investment decisions in the land market tend to be cautious.
Sales side: The short-term impact of the New Deal is limited, and the market continued its bottoming trend in September
The 8.28 New Deal establishes transition arrangements for stock projects. Mortgage payments for projects that have obtained pre-sale certificates can be carried out according to the original regulations, and projects that have obtained work permits before the New Deal can still proceed according to the original pre-sale conditions. Most of the current sales and saleable properties were formed before the New Deal, and the direct impact on the sales market in the short term is relatively limited.
Judging from the September transaction situation, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in key cities continued the previous trend. According to data from the China Index, from September 1 to 27, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in the 30 key cities decreased by 5.5% year on year, while first-tier cities increased 9% year on year; Beijing and Shanghai, driven by the optimization of demand-side policies in August, transactions increased 18% and 16%, respectively. Second-hand housing units were sold in 20 key cities, up 4.2% year on year. Second-hand housing sales in Shanghai have been increasing year on year for 7 consecutive months. The current improvement in core city transactions is more driven by previous demand-side policies and the “Golden Nine” traditional peak sales season. The new housing market in most cities is still bottoming out, and market restoration is mainly focused on high-quality sectors and projects in core cities.
In terms of price, there have been recent price adjustments for new housing projects in some cities, but the main manifestation is the withdrawal of concessions and adjustment of price differences between buildings. There are still few projects that actually directly raise sales prices. Currently, the market has not formed a general trend of price increases. Project price adjustments are more of a local strategic change made by enterprises based on sales conditions, product differences, and market expectations.
Overall, the August 28 New Deal came into effect, and the direct impact of the policy on the volume and price of new housing transactions was limited. The market performance in September basically continued the previous trend of bottoming out and structural restoration. With the gradual implementation of existing home sales and the new pre-sale system, its impact on buyers' expectations, project supply, and market transactions still needs to be further observed in subsequent market operations.
Supply side: Current supply continues to shrink, and it is expected that the impact of the New Deal will gradually become apparent
The supply of new homes launched in September continued to shrink. According to data from the China Index, from September 1 to 27, the approved listing area of newly built commercial housing in 20 cities fell by nearly 30% year-on-year, continuing the trend of shrinking supply since this year. However, this change is mainly a cumulative result of the continuous decline in land transactions and new construction starts until now. The August 28 New Deal was implemented only a month ago, and the direct impact on the current scale of new housing listings is still small.
It is worth noting that some core cities have recently accelerated the pace of obtaining pre-sale certificates. Take Beijing as an example. From September 1 to 27, the number of new housing units listed in Beijing reached 5,272, which has already exceeded the total monthly scale for each month of this year. Some housing enterprises are also speeding up the pace of construction and evidence collection. For projects that have met or are close to pre-sale conditions before the New Deal, some companies tend to speed up evidence collection and enter the sales stage in order to shorten the capital occupation cycle. This also means that the short-term supply side will still be dominated by stock projects, and the New Deal has yet to form an obvious supply gap.
Looking at the medium term, the impact of the New Deal on the pace of supply will gradually be reflected. Under the original pre-sale model, housing enterprises can usually enter pre-sale for about 6-9 months after acquiring land; the new pre-sale model raises the pre-sale node to the peak of the main structure, and the time from land acquisition to the earliest pre-sale for some projects may be extended to 12-18 months. As a result, the overall cycle of new projects from land acquisition to market supply will be extended. The impact will not be immediately reflected in this year's supply data, but will gradually be reflected as projects that acquire land after the New Deal enter the development stage. Judging from the current development cycle, the impact of the New Deal on new supply will gradually increase from 2027. Around the second quarter can be used as a key observation stage, but the specific pace of transmission still depends on local rules and transition arrangements for projects in progress.
From a city perspective, there are certain differences in the impact of system adjustments on supply and markets. In core Tier 1 and 2 cities where pre-sales account for relatively high pre-sales, relatively low inventory, and a good demand base, the impact of changes in the pace of new supply may be more obvious; some third- and fourth-tier cities with high inventory and weak demand have fewer new land acquisitions in recent years. Many of the projects themselves have a long development and sales cycle. They are actually close to ready or existing housing, and the market impact of system adjustments is relatively limited.
The slowdown in the pace of new supply will help improve the relationship between supply and demand in the short term, providing some room for the elimination of existing projects, but if supply contraction continues, it may also limit the subsequent recovery in the scale of new home sales.
Local rules: Beijing clarifies transition arrangements for projects in transit, and mortgage loans are still quite strict
On September 24, Beijing took the lead in issuing local implementation opinions on the 8.28 New Deal, making specific arrangements for pre-sale management, existing housing sales, capital supervision, and housing credit. In terms of the division of old and new projects, for projects that have obtained (including partial) work permits before 8.28 (inclusive) but have not yet obtained a pre-sale certificate, they can still be executed according to the original pre-sale conditions (consistent with national policies); projects that have acquired land (including being sold) before 8/28 (inclusive) but have not yet obtained a work permit are, in principle, pre-sale management is carried out according to the new project, only if each district government ensures that it can be completed and delivered on time and reported to the municipal department for the record, it is still possible to apply for pre-sale in accordance with the original pre-sale conditions until the end of 2027. The pace of supply was buffered, but the buffer was limited to the pre-sale threshold, funding Regulations and mortgage loans are still strict.
For new projects, Beijing has made it clear that pre-sale requires the main structure of the single building to be capped and an inspection record signed by the five parties. The pre-sale funds are fully supervised and the entire process is supervised, and supervision can only be lifted after the project has been jointly inspected. In terms of mortgage issuance, for projects that have obtained a pre-sale license after August 28, personal housing mortgage loans (including provident fund loans) must be completed and filed before they can be issued. The loan funds are transferred to the pre-sale fund supervision account through fiduciary payments.
In terms of existing housing sales, commercial housing projects that have been newly issued land concession announcements since August 28 will give priority to existing housing sales, and the right to use the house sold and construction land must be unsecured or unsealed; development companies can sign a deposit contract with the buyer after obtaining a construction permit, and the deposit generally does not exceed 1% of the total housing price. In terms of land payments, commercial residential land sale prices announced after August 28 can be paid in installments. The down payment is not less than 50% within 30 days from the date the contract is signed, and the balance is paid within 2 years without interest, providing a certain buffer for the new project funding arrangement.
Overall, Beijing's current rules have not changed the basic direction of the August 28 New Deal to raise the pre-sale threshold, delay mortgage issuance, and promote existing housing sales. The focus is on smoothing the stock supply pace and financial pressure on new projects through arrangements such as the transition of projects in progress and interest-free installment of land payments, while at the same time using full capital closure and supervision as the bottom line to protect the rights and interests of buyers.
Beijing's real estate policy has always been a strong weather vane, and its specific implementation method has also provided an important reference for other core city rules.
Land market: Housing companies' bids tend to be cautious, investment logic is being adjusted, and the peak of land supply at the end of the year is an important observation window
Compared to the trading market, there are already some signs of the impact of the August 28 New Deal on the land market. Since August 31, the overall premium rate for residential land transactions in 300 cities has been lower than the previous level. According to China Index data, four weeks after the New Deal (August 31 to September 27), residential land concessions in 300 cities were 47.2 billion yuan, 23.9 billion yuan, 20.3 billion yuan, and 44.7 billion yuan respectively; the average premium rates were 5.2%, 7.5%, 3.7%, and 4.9%, respectively. Among them, the premium rate for the second week was mainly driven by a single high-quality plot in Shenzhen, which was only 1.1% after exclusion. Since September (1-27), 300 cities have sold a total planned construction area of 29.82 million square meters, with land concessions of 115.5 billion yuan, with an average premium rate of 6.0%, down from August. Most cities mainly traded at reserve prices and low premiums.
It should be noted that most of the land sold in September was announced before the August 28 New Deal, and the land acquisition decisions of enterprises were also mainly formed before the policy was implemented, so the current land market performance more reflects the initial assessment of the impact of enterprises on the New Deal.
Judging from recent land transactions, housing companies' attention to project certainty has increased. High-quality, scarce land plots in core cities are still attractive. Some plots with improved low floor area ratios can still get the attention of enterprises due to the relatively controllable pace of development and large room for product premiums; at the same time, methods such as lower total land prices, deep regional cultivation, and joint land acquisition have also increased.
Overall, companies are more cautious about estimating future sales speed and prices, and at the same time pay more attention to development cycles, capital consumption, and project elimination certainty. In this context, corporate bidding strategies tend to be cautious, and the land premium space for some projects is limited to a certain extent.
Table: Status of premium residential land plots in core Tier 1 and 2 cities after the 8.28 New Deal (8.31-9.27)
Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS
Looking at the land supply side, local governments are also providing a certain financial buffer for project development under the new model by adjusting land concession conditions. According to monitoring by the China Index, from August 31 to September 27, cities such as Xiamen, Lishui, and Jiangmen have already introduced land sales plots. Some of the plots are also equipped with arrangements such as installment payment of land payments. On September 24, the first existing residential land for sale after the August 28 New Deal in Xiamen was sold, and C&D obtained it at the reserve price. Meanwhile, Beijing cancelled three residential land sales in September, and cities such as Xi'an, Chengdu, and Fuzhou also terminated individual land sales. The land market's adaptation to the new sales system is gradually unfolding.
Table: Status of some existing sales plots after the 8.28 New Deal (8.31-9.27)
Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS
Furthermore, it is worth noting that the end of the year is usually a concentrated period for residential land supply throughout the year. According to China Index data, in November-December of 2023, 2024, and 2025, residential land concessions in 300 cities accounted for 34.8%, 44.3%, and 34.7% of the year, respectively. The land market transactions at the end of the year are of strong observational significance.
Local new policy rules are required to be introduced within the year. Policies such as minimum delivery units, installment payment of land payments, and transition arrangements will directly determine the future strategies and ability of housing enterprises to acquire land, which in turn will affect new supply in 2027 and beyond.
Real estate enterprises: Accelerate the adjustment of business models, and pay more attention to cash flow and project certainty
The August 28 New Deal changed the pace of capital turnover for commercial housing from development and construction to sales and repayment. Under the traditional pre-sale model, housing enterprises can recover part of the development capital through earlier sales and mortgage repayments, and further invest in subsequent construction and land acquisition; as pre-sale nodes and mortgage loans move further backwards, the project capital occupation cycle lengthens accordingly, and housing enterprises need to rearrange the pace of project construction, sales, and capital use.
As far as stock projects are concerned, under the transition policy arrangement for old and new projects, some projects can still continue with the original pre-sale conditions. The direct impact of the policy on the pace of project development is relatively limited, but changes in mortgage loan nodes will still have an impact on the pace of capital return, and enterprises need to make good project funding arrangements. For new land acquisition projects, investment estimates need to be carried out again according to the new sales system, paying more attention to the development cycle, capital utilization, sales repayment rhythm, and project removal certainty. The regional market base, plot location, product competitiveness, and total project investment scale will also be more fully considered during land acquisition. At the same time, under existing housing sales, the final product quality presented by the project is more closely linked to sales performance, and enterprises need to pay more attention to product design and delivery quality during the project positioning and development phase.
Overall, the August 28 New Deal promotes a further shift in the business logic of housing enterprises from relying on pre-sales and rapid turnover to paying more attention to full-cycle project management, cash flow safety, and development certainty.
Summarize
Taken together, one month after the implementation of the August 28 New Deal, the direct impact on the trading side of the market was relatively limited. The overall volume and price performance of new housing transactions in September continued the previous bottoming trend. The supply side is still in the process of shrinking, but the current changes are mainly the cumulative result of previous land and construction contractions, and the impact of the New Deal has not yet been fully reflected. In contrast, there have been some more direct changes in the land market. Housing enterprises are paying more attention to project certainty, development cycle, and capital utilization, and local governments have also begun to adjust land supply conditions through existing housing sales and land payment installments.
In the fourth quarter, we need to focus on the implementation of local rules and supporting arrangements such as connecting old and new projects, mortgage loan nodes and minimum delivery units, as well as land supply and land acquisition by housing enterprises at the end of the year. The former will influence the extent to which policies are actually transmitted in different cities, while the latter is an important window for observing changes in new supply in 2027.