According to Woofun AI, the Bitcoin market in October was at a crossroads where historical seasonal benefits and huge leverage risks were intertwined, and the $4.35 billion long exposure became the sword of Damocles hanging over the price.
Judging from macroeconomic historical rules, Bitcoin's performance in October is often better than the previous month. Since 2011, the average decline in August was -7.15%, and the average decline in September was -2.34%. However, this year, Bitcoin bucked the trend and rose 25% in August, and also recorded a 6% increase in September. Looking back over the past 15 years, October showed an upward trend for 10 years, with an average increase of 11.2%; and after experiencing an increase in September, the trend continued 4 times in the following 6 months.
However, the level of financial support is weakening markedly. Since September 17, the Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT.US) has had net inflows for 7 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative total of 2.98 billion US dollars, but the inflow scale has shrunk sharply. The single-day inflow of only $21.347 million on September 25 was only 13% of the September 21 peak of $998.95 million. In contrast, the August buying market continued for 9 trading days, with a cumulative inflow of $3.04 billion, and the daily inflow was never lower than 38% of the peak day. Historical experience shows that prices often come under pressure when capital inflows weaken. For example, after the buying momentum declined on August 28, the price of Bitcoin fell 5.8% by September 15.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, this cliff-style decline in capital inflows is in stark contrast to the steady funding commitments in August, which suggests that current purchases are unsustainable.
In terms of position structure, long-term holders' behavior has been reversed, while leverage risk has accumulated sharply. The 'Hodler Net Position Change' indicator, which tracks changes in long-term holders' net positions, continued to be negative due to sell-off from August 2 to August 30, but turned positive from August 31, indicating that long-term capital began to be recovered. On September 25, the indicator corresponded to 16,415 bitcoins, and further rose to 23,172 on September 27, indicating that holders are taking advantage of the quiet period of the market to increase their holdings.
However, the leveraging pressure in the derivatives market cannot be ignored. On the Binance platform, the capital for short positions in the past 7 days reached 1.96 billion US dollars, far exceeding the 1.03 billion US dollar long position. A slight increase in price can trigger the bears to force close the position. However, looking at the 30-day longer cycle, the risk of going long is even more serious: the total value of long positions is as high as 4.35 billion US dollars, the corresponding price of Bitcoin is about 74,170 US dollars, while the total value of short positions is only 1.65 billion US dollars. The lessons of history are profound. On October 10, 2025, a leveraged liquidation tragedy of more than 19 billion US dollars occurred. Currently, if the leverage of high companies go long and go back, it may trigger a chain reaction.
Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin has been in a downward channel since January 13, buying weakened after February 6, and failed in an attempt to break through the upper channel of $87,360 at the end of September. The current value of the 50-period exponential moving average is $74,117. It is about to cross the 100-period exponential moving average ($74,312), forming a bullish crossover signal, and the selling pressure has abated since September 22, providing a possibility for a crossover. The key resistance levels are $84,433, $87,360, $90,288, $99,764, and $115,094, in that order. If the price falls below $80,811, the weak capital flow may push the price down to $74,957, which is close to the moving average and the area for large long positions. Taken together, if the closing price stabilizes at $87,360 and ETF funds return over the next two days, the bullish logic will be strengthened; conversely, if it falls below $80,811, the $74,000 mark will be severely tested.