The Zhitong Finance App learned that recently, Citi (Citibank), an internationally renowned investment bank, released the latest research report, giving MOMENTA-W (06880) a “buy” rating, with a target price of HK$508.2, using the Segment Valuation Method (SOTP) and supporting DCF valuation cross-verification to complete the first coverage.
Citi said that thanks to the rapid growth in China's L2++/L3 penetration rate and the rapid development of RoBox businesses such as L4 RoboTaxi and RoboVan, Momenta is expected to continue leading the way in terms of market share. On the financial side, Citi predicts that in 2026-2028, Momenta's total revenue will increase 67%, 72%, and 96% year-on-year, respectively, to reach RMB 4,037 billion, RMB 6.962 billion, and RMB 13.618 billion; it is expected that from 2028, the RoboX business will become the company's main source of revenue.
Citi believes that Momenta has three major growth drivers: First, the software and hardware integrated solution created by Momenta and xHeart is expected to take the lead in the domestic replacement wave of smart driving chips. Second, the software and hardware integrated solution also has a cost advantage over peers. Third, driven by multiple policy dividends, the RoboX business is expected to help Momenta open up room for revenue growth and accelerate the rise in the second growth curve.
Specifically, with the rise of domestic manufacturers, the hardware market share of leading overseas manufacturers in China has dropped from about 52% in 2025 to 33% in July 2026. It is expected that by 2030, the hardware market share of Chinese chipmakers will reach 75%, which will benefit models equipped with the Momenta R7 world model. At the same time, the software and hardware integrated solution created by Momenta and xHeart is expected to help the company obtain more orders from OEMs around the world.
Citi highly endorses Momenta's “one flywheel, two legs” strategy, data-driven and unmapped model, and believes that this strategic choice supports Momenta's ability to quickly launch in new cities and international markets, and achieves efficient generalization in multiple regions and scenarios. In the next 5 years, China's autonomous taxi market size (TAM) alone will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 202% (2026-2030) to reach $15 billion by 2030; then it will continue to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 35% (2030-2035), reaching 68 billion US dollars by 2035.
Based on this, Citi predicts that Momenta's Robox businesses such as RoboTaxi and Robovan are expected to become the two major pillars of the company's revenue growth: Robotaxi's revenue is expected to reach 1,482 billion yuan in 2028, and Robovan's revenue is expected to grow from 14 million yuan in 2026 to 2,868 billion yuan in 2028. The growth of these two major business segments together marks Momenta's strategic transformation to commercialization of high-growth autonomous mobility services. It is estimated that by 2030, the revenue from the RoboX business is expected to reach 23.5 billion yuan.