According to an analysis by the US Center for Strategic and International Studies, although Russia's Arctic energy exports only account for a portion of its overall fossil fuel revenue, the transportation system is highly concentrated. Since February 2022, Russian Arctic crude oil exports are estimated to be around US$18.8 billion, of which about 53% has been transferred via the two floating storage vessels “Omba” and “Kola”. If you add the Murmansk ship-to-ship transfer anchorage, at least 77% of Arctic crude oil exports have gone through these three fixed nodes. At the same time, Russia also relies on about 100 ice-class tankers and 8 nuclear-powered icebreakers for exports to the Arctic throughout the year; the research team confirmed that since February 2022, Russian nuclear icebreakers have escorted sanctioned tankers for more than 6 hours at least 110 times. CSIS pointed out that the Russian icebreaker fleet is facing problems such as aging, inadequate maintenance facilities, and delays in new ships due to sanctions, and that the number of icebreakers required to maintain the full year navigation of the Northern Sea Route by 2030 may be higher than the actual number available.

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