Saudi Arabia’s oil revenues have seen a significant surge, despite the ongoing war with Iran and attacks on its oil infrastructure, making it a clear winner of the conflict, according to an expert.
Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, in his Substack post on Sunday, wrote that the rise in crude prices has more than offset the decline in export volume for Saudi Arabia.
Brent crude futures ending December have seen a sharp increase of about 60% on a year-to-date basis, trading at around $97 per barrel, at the time of writing.
Despite Saudi Arabia’s oil exports falling from 7 million barrels per day before the war to less than 4 million in March and April, they have since rebounded to 5.5 million.
This nation’s annualized export revenues grew 40% from $150 billion pre-war to $210 billion, a windfall of over 6% of GDP, highlighted Brooks.
“The longer this conflict lasts, the better for Saudi Arabia,” Brooks wrote.
According to Brooks’ calculation, at current export volumes of 5.5 million barrels per day, Brent crude would need to fall significantly below $75 a barrel for Saudi Arabia to be worse off than before the war. “The Saudi Kingdom is perhaps the only winner in this war,” he wrote.
Brooks added that Iran is expected to emerge from the war “massively” weakened and reliant on foreign aid for reconstruction.
US Naval Blockade Eases Hormuz Traffic
Iran effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz amid its war with the U.S., sharply restricting vessel traffic and disrupting a key route for global trade. The U.S. imposed a naval blockade in April, which remained in effect until June 18, when it was suspended under a 60-day U.S.-Iran agreement. When the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran fell apart, the U.S. reimposed the blockade in July.
The protection provided by the U.S. military to tankers has facilitated the restoration of many oil exports through the crucial waterway.
Saudi Oil Flows Resume Via Red Sea
Earlier this month, attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi group disrupted a key Saudi oil pipeline. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly sought U.S. military support against the Houthis, but President Donald Trump declined direct strikes and instead offered intelligence assistance. Riyadh later sought China’s help to rein in the Houthis, a Reuters report suggested.
Meanwhile, the State Department approved a potential $24.3 billion sale of Lockheed Martin Corp.‘s (NYSE: LMT) F-35 fighter jets and related equipment to Saudi Arabia, pending congressional approval.
Over the weekend, the Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia has resumed oil exports through its East-West pipeline after repairing drone-strike damage, restoring a key route that bypasses the Hormuz and helps offset reduced tanker traffic.
As noted by TankerTrackers late Sunday, “any exports Saudi achieves via the Red Sea is just icing on their $100/barrel cake.”
The maritime data provider added that the Iran proxies in Iraq and Yemen did Riyadh “a favor” by compelling them to export crude through the east coast, where the U.S. was already increasing convoy protection.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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