Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has fallen sharply after every midterm election since 2010—and prominent cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez expects that pattern to repeat again this November.
What the Historical Pattern Shows
Martinez layed out his thesis on Tuesday by looking at Bitcoin’s post-midterm track record.
Following the 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 elections, Bitcoin fell 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27%, respectively.
Martinez was careful to note the pattern doesn’t prove elections caused the declines, but called it worth watching ahead of Nov. 3, 2026.
The fourth-quarter data tells a similarly mixed story. Bitcoin gained 391% in Q4 2010, but posted losses of 16.70% in Q4 2014, 42.16% in Q4 2018, and 14.75% in Q4 2022.
Martinez argues that as Q4 begins, investors should brace for volatility regardless of direction.
His trading plan: watch for weakness after the midterms, then buy near Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis around $73,000, a level that has historically held through major corrections during confirmed bull markets.
Why the Political Backdrop Adds Weight to the Thesis
Several new polls released this month point to a rough political environment for Republicans heading into November.
Reuters/Ipsos (Sept. 17-20):
- Trump’s overall approval sits at 32%, his lowest reading across both presidencies
- Republican approval dropped from 86% in January to 73%
- Republican approval on cost-of-living fell from 70% to 44%
Emerson College (Sept. 21-22):
- Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 53% to 42%
- Trump’s approval sits at 39% against 58% disapproval, his highest disapproval mark of the term
- Independents broke for Democratic candidates 60% to 31%
NPR/PBS News/Marist (Sept. 14-15):
- Nearly twice as many voters describe their vote as against Trump (45%) rather than for him (24%)
None of this polling data establishes that a Republican defeat would trigger a Bitcoin selloff. It simply confirms the political uncertainty Ali Martinez is pointing to as the backdrop for his seasonal thesis.
Why Timing Matters Beyond the Election
The Emerson poll also flagged what voters care about most heading into the vote. The economy ranks as the top concern for 41% of voters, up four points from August, with the Iran war, jobs, and tariff policy rated as the most important individual issues on a 1-to-5 scale.
Voters who cite the economy as their top issue currently break for Democratic candidates 55% to 41%, a reversal from 2024 when economy-focused voters leaned Republican.
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