Grain Markets at a Crossroads: What the Moving Averages Are Telling Us
Timothy Healy 9/29/2026
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Corn Dec ’26 (ZCZ26)
Current close (9/29): 522’0
Trend Assessment: Bearish
Current price (522’0) is below the 7-day MA (529’7).
7-day MA is below the 14-day MA and the 14-day MA is below the 21-day MA.
This is a classic bearish moving-average alignment.
Momentum has weakened sharply from the 546 high posted on 09/01.
The market has broken below all three short/intermediate-term averages, suggesting sellers remain in control unless price can reclaim the 530-533 area.
Key Levels of first resistance: 530’0 to 531’5 (7-day and 14-day MAs)
Major resistance: 533’1 (21-day MA)
Support: 519’2 (today’s low)
Next support: approximately 514’6 (09/25 low)
Bottom line: This contract is in a short-term downtrend. A close back above 533’1 would improve the outlook, while a break below 519’2 would suggest additional downside risk.
Soybean Nov ’26 (ZSX26)
Current close (29 Sep): 1297.75
Price is below all three MAs. The averages are tightly clustered between ~1312–1313.5, so that zone is the key near-term battleground.
Support & Resistance
Resistance
1312–1314 → MA cluster (strongest immediate resistance)
1318–1320 → recent closes / highs
1325–1328 → 21–22 Sep area
1332–1335 → recent swing high (10–11 Sep)
Support
1288–1290 → tested multiple times (28 Sep low + late-Aug closes) — strongest nearby support
1284 → today’s session low
1277–1280 → 28 Sep low extension
1266–1268 → late-August swing low
Preferred bias while price stays under the MAs – Sell rallies
Entry zone: 1312–1314 (MA confluence)
Stop: above 1320 (or tighter above 1318)
Targets: 1288–1290 (first), then 1277–1280
Approx. Risk: Reward 1.5–2 depending on exact entry.
Counter-trend long only at strong support
Entry: 1288–1290 (if clear rejection / long lower wick)
Stop: below 1284 or more safely below 1277
Targets: 1312–1314 first, then 1318–1320
Only take this if the 1288 level holds again; otherwise skip.
Breakout rules
Bullish flip: daily close above 1314 (clearing the MA cluster) → look long toward 1325–1332
Bearish continuation: daily close below 1284–1288 → next downside targets 1266–1270
The sharp drop on 28 Sep (range >40 points) leaves the market in a short-term downtrend relative to the 7/14/21 MAs. Until price reclaims and holds above ~1314, the path of least resistance is lower or sideways chop between 1288 and 1314.
Wheat Dec ’26 (ZWZ26)
Current Close (9/29) 692’6
Trend Analysis
Strongly Bearish
Settlement (692’6) is below the 7-day, 14-day, and 21-day moving averages.
7-day MA (706’3) is below the 14-day MA (715’3).
14-day MA (715’3) is below the 21-day MA (728’0).
This is a textbook bearish alignment: 7 < 14 < 21.
Wheat has fallen nearly 90 cents from the early-September high near 782’4.
Short-term momentum remains negative.
The widening gap between the 7-, 14-, and 21-day averages indicates the downtrend is accelerating rather than stabilizing.
No technical evidence of a reversal yet.
Key Levels
Resistance
706’3 (7-day MA)
715’3 (14-day MA)
728’0 (21-day MA)
Support
681’4 (09/29 low)
683’0 (09/28 low)
Below that, the market lacks significant chart support until the upper-660s area.
Scenarios
Bullish
Close back above 706’3
Then recover 715’3
Targets: 728’0 → 741’2
Bearish
Break below 681’4
Targets: 670 → 660
Moving averages continue lower
Comparison to Corn and Soybeans
| Contract | Settlement | 7-Day | 14-Day | 21-Day | Trend |
| Dec ’26 Corn | 522’0 | 529’7 | 531’5 | 533’1 | Bearish |
| Nov ’26 Soybeans | 1297’6 | 1313’4 | 1313’2 | 1313’0 | Neutral-Bearish |
| Dec ’26 Wheat | 692’6 | 706’3 | 715’3 | 728’0 | Strongly Bearish |
Of the three markets, wheat is the weakest technically. It is the only one showing a clearly declining moving-average structure with substantial separation between the averages, indicating persistent downside momentum.
Trade Ideas
In Dec’26 Corn
Sell rallies into 530-533 for
Price is below all moving averages.
7 < 14 < 21 indicates downside momentum.
530-533 is now resistance.
Sell: 530-533
Stop: Above 536
Target: 515, then 505
Risk/Reward: roughly 1:2
Nov’26 Beans
Buy on a close above 1314
Stop: 1295
Target: 1328-1332
Risk/Reward: approximately 1:
Buy only on a recovery above 1314
Moving averages are still positively aligned (7 > 14 > 21).
Current selloff has broken beneath the averages, but the longer-term uptrend has not completely rolled over.
Dec’26 Wheat
Sell current levels (692-693) or rallies toward 706
Stop: Above 716
Target: 670, then 660
Risk/Reward: about 1:2.5
Most bearish chart of the three.
Price is 35+ cents below the 21-day moving average.
7 < 14 < 21 with widening separation.
Momentum remains sharply negative.
Tim Healy
Broker
Pure Hedge Division
Direct 312 957 4731
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