J.P. Morgan said that although shipping is still at risk, crude oil flows from the Middle East have almost returned to pre-war levels. “The Middle East's oil export artery is being cleared again,” J.P. Morgan analyst Natasha Kaneva and others said in a September 29 report. For a region still at war, this is a “significant recovery,” although the recovery is uneven. According to J.P. Morgan's data, crude oil flow from the Middle East has now rebounded to 17.5 million b/d, equivalent to 98% of pre-war levels; shipments of refined oil products such as diesel and gasoline are 3 million b/d, which is equivalent to 58% of pre-war levels. The ten-day average for the past five days shows that the overall shipment volume has reached 89% of the 2025 level. Analysts said that crude oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz has almost “recovered to a high of nearly 13 million b/d in late June, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia.” “But higher transit traffic should not be mistaken for increased safety — rather, it reflects the industry's growing ability to operate under ongoing risk.”

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