The Zhitong Finance App learned that the latest crude oil flow analysis and research report released by Wall Street financial giant J.P. Morgan Chase shows that despite ongoing shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Mande, crude oil traffic in the Middle East has almost returned to pre-war levels.
Recently, US officials have repeatedly stated that the flow of crude oil transported through Hormuz has increased, although investors' unanimous estimates are more conservative. Earlier this month, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (Scott Bessent) said that about 17 million barrels of oil pass through the border every day, while TotalEnergies SE (TotalEnergies SE) CEO Patrick Pouyanne sees 10 million barrels of crude oil and products flowing out every day.
Although oil exports to the Middle East are showing resilience beyond expectations, the energy supply chain, including refined oil products, has yet to return to normal. According to J.P. Morgan's September 29 estimates, the Middle East crude oil export volume has rebounded to 17.5 million b/d, equivalent to 98% before the war; the transportation volume of refined oil products such as diesel and gasoline only recovered to 58% of the pre-war period, while the total transportation volume of crude oil and refined oil products reached 89% of the 2025 level.
The outlet arteries are flowing again! J.P. Morgan Chase: Middle East crude oil shipments reach 98% of pre-war levels
A team of analysts at J.P. Morgan Chase, including Natasha Kaneva, said in a September 29 report: “The main artery of Middle Eastern oil exports is being cleared again.” They said it was “a significant recovery” for a region still at war, although the recovery did not appear to be balanced.
According to J.P. Morgan Chase, crude oil transportation has rebounded to 17.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to 98% of pre-war levels; transportation of refined oil products such as diesel and gasoline is 3 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to 58% of pre-war levels. Analysts said in the research report that, as measured by the 10-day average data for the past five days, the overall traffic volume reached about 89% of the 2025 level.
As the US-Iran conflict enters its eighth month, the global oil market is closely monitoring the amount of crude oil and refined oil products being transported from the region. In addition to goods transported through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has successfully restored about half of the east-west pipeline. The pipeline that transports oil across Saudi Arabia to its Red Sea port was damaged earlier this month.
Analysts said oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz almost “recovered to a high of nearly 13 million barrels per day at the end of June, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia.” “But an increase in traffic should not be mistaken for an improvement in safety conditions — it actually reflects the industry's growing ability to operate in an environment of ongoing risk.”
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the global market. As Iran claims control over this waterway, attacks against ships have continued to occur in the waters surrounding the strait for months. The United States refused to acknowledge this claim and, while blocking Iranian ports, assisted ships from other countries to pass through the strait.
According to J.P. Morgan's estimates, the Middle East crude oil export volume has rebounded to 17.5 million b/d, equivalent to 98% before the war; the transportation volume of refined oil products such as diesel and gasoline has only recovered to 58% of the pre-war period, while the total transportation volume of crude oil and refined oil products reached 89% of the 2025 level. The latest set of data unquestionably reveals the changes taking place in the oil market: the increase in traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the reopening of alternative transportation channels in Saudi Arabia are easing the pressure on crude oil shortages, but there are still clear gaps in the supply, transportation costs, and delivery safety of refined oil products. “Being able to ship oil out” and “being able to deliver continuously, safely, and at low cost” are still two different supply states.
Oil prices are also pricing this differentiation. At 9:30 Beijing time on September 30, Brent crude oil futures rose 1.11% to 103.73 US dollars/barrel after experiencing Tuesday's decline; according to the price comparison of recent monthly futures prices at various points in time, it rose about 43.1% from 72.48 US dollars on the last trading day before the war on February 27. However, there is a clear difference between the expiring November contract and the more active December contract, which settled at $96.16 on September 29. The price of the near end is higher, reflecting the fact that immediate delivery is still tight.
Diplomatic progress has not been sufficient to eliminate this part of the risk premium. Qatar said on September 29 that it is still pushing the US and Iran to find a common position through shuttle mediation. Restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is a priority; Trump denied that he had proposed easing sanctions and unfreezing Iran's funds in exchange for concessions on the nuclear issue. Negotiations are still in progress, but no arrangements are in place to guarantee the long-term normalization of commercial shipping, so the risk of supply recovery and escalation of the situation continues to affect oil prices at the same time.
One pipeline, two straits — the oil market is still paying a “definitive delivery premium”
Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline repair has reopened an important channel for crude oil exports, but it is necessary to distinguish between pipeline transportation capacity, actual traffic volume, and port loading volume. According to data quoted by Reuters on September 29, the pipeline's transportation capacity was 7 million b/d, and the actual volume before the attack was about 5.5 million b/d; after the restart, industry insiders and Kpler estimated the current volume at about 2 million barrels and 2.65 million b/d, respectively.
Kpler expects it to rise to 3 million to 4 million b/d in the next few days, and it may still take about a month to return to pre-attack levels. Shipments have also resumed at Yanbu Port. Therefore, restarting the pipeline means that transportation capacity is being released. It does not mean that it is directly equivalent to the full restoration of 7 million b/d, let alone additional oil production capacity.
Looking at the geography of transportation, the east-west pipeline transports crude oil to Yanbu along the Red Sea to help Saudi Arabia bypass the Strait of Hormuz; after loading, goods can go north to the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal or SUMED pipeline, and the usual route south to Asia passes through the Mander Strait. Bypassing Hormuz does not mean circumventing all energy transportation and long-distance shipping risks. The US Maritime Administration's current warning indicates that the threat of the Houthis to merchant ships in the Red Sea and the Strait of Mande still exists, and ships linked to Saudi Arabia face higher risks.
This risk has become a real cost. Earlier, some media reported on September 24, citing information revealed by industry insiders, that the war risk price for Saudi-related tankers docked in Yanbu had risen to about 3% of the ship's value, yet less than 1% at the beginning of July; this quotation system is an insured quote; it is not a uniform rate for the final transaction of all ships. However, it is possible to suggest an investment observation framework: the crude oil/petroleum futures trading market is shifting from simply trading “how many barrels are missing” to simultaneous trading “can these barrels be delivered reliably”. The return of crude oil will help reduce the shortage premium, but delays in shipping recovery of petroleum product lines such as refined oil products, and high insurance and transportation costs may still slow the decline in terminal energy inflation.