The Zhitong Finance App learned that on September 30, 2026, the latest “Vehicle Inventory Alert Index Survey” VIA (Vehicle Inventory Alert Index) released by the China Automobile Dealers Association showed that in September 2026, the car dealer inventory warning index was 63.2%, up 8.7 percentage points from the previous year and 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. The inventory warning index was above the boom and bust line.
This year's “Golden Nine Silver Ten” peak season effect was significantly weaker than in previous years, showing an overall weak “poor peak season” market. Currently, overall consumer confidence is weak, consumer price sensitivity is rising, and car purchase decisions tend to be cautious. Car purchase plans are generally delayed, waiting for the National Day Auto Show or year-end promotion points, and the transaction cycle has lengthened. Passenger traffic and orders weakened month-on-month in September, and Jinjiu had a weak start.
According to survey data, 54.2% of dealers believe that this year's “gold nine silver ten” peak season effect is significantly weaker than previous years, 33.7% believe that the peak season effect has basically disappeared, and only 3.6% think the performance is superior to previous years. Although manufacturers launched new cars intensively in September and dealers stepped up promotion efforts, they were still unable to effectively leverage terminal sales growth, and the traditional peak season had a very weak driving effect on consumer demand. Judging from this, the retail sales volume of passenger car terminals is estimated to be around 1.65 million units in September.
Currently, the pressure faced by dealers is still mainly concentrated on the following aspects: passenger flow and leads continue to decline, and the transaction cycle is lengthening; sales targets issued by manufacturers are high, and slow-selling models are being sold, leading to a backlog of inventory and a rise in long-term storage; new car prices are inverted, bicycle losses, and rebates are lagging behind, and profit pressure continues to increase.
Looking at the sub-index situation: inventory, employees, and business conditions increased month-on-month, while market demand and average daily sales index declined month-on-month.
Looking at the regional index situation: in September, the overall national index was 63.2%, the northern index was 67.3%, the eastern index was 57.3%, the western index was 67.3%, and the southern index was 54.8%.
Looking at the index by brand type: The index of luxury and imported brands declined slightly month-on-month in September, and the index of mainstream joint ventures and independent brands rose month-on-month.
Judging next month's market: The October car market will experience the combined effects of the National Day holiday and the 11th Auto Show. Passenger flow and orders are expected to pick up in stages. Some wait-and-see customers will release demand for car purchases stimulated by holiday promotion policies, but demand release is concentrated and short, and there is strong downward pressure after the holiday season. The overall market situation is expected to pick up slightly from September.
Entering the fourth quarter, the car market showed a trend of phased stabilization and moderate restoration. According to the survey, 42.2% of dealers expected to increase from the third quarter, but 24.1% judged that the market continued to weaken, and only 2.4% expected a significant improvement. Looking at the whole year, deep negative growth has become mainstream expectations. A total of 50.6% of dealers judged the annual sales decline of more than 10%. Of these, 37.3% expected the decline to be higher than 15%, and only 15.7% were optimistic about sales growth.
The China Automobile Dealers Association suggests that dealers should rationally estimate actual market demand according to the actual situation. At the same time, it is necessary to increase “publicity on trade-in and scrapping renewal policies”, boost consumer confidence by strengthening services, put cost reduction and efficiency first, and prevent business risks.