According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin recorded a strong rebound of 42.5% in the third quarter, the best quarterly performance since the end of 2024, but Bitfinex warns that the market has come to an end, and subsequent increases must rely on direct buying support from the spot market.
Derivatives market signals that risk is accumulating. The Bitfinex Alpha report indicates that reducing the leverage ratio is the key to avoiding chain liquidations, and that reducing the size of borrowing is not equivalent to entering the buying market. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the size of open contracts denominated in Bitcoin did not expand at the same time as prices rose, and the narrowing of futures base premiums weakened the momentum of arbitrage trading. On the financial side, US Exchange-Traded Fund (IBIT.US) institutional purchasing power slowed significantly in the last week of September. Farside Investors statistics show that the daily net inflow plummeted from $999 million on Monday September 22 to $134.5 million on Friday September 26.
Despite maintaining net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, the head effect was evident, with BlackRock IBIT inflows of $1.16 billion a week, followed by Fidelity FBTC with an inflow of $701.6 billion.
Supply-demand balance estimates revealed a sharp contraction in absorption capacity. Bitfinex estimates that by the close of trading on September 29, the ETF absorption ratio of miners plummeted from 25.6 times to 1.8 times, while analysts believe it is necessary to maintain a five-fold absorption rate (about US$190 million per day) to offset the new supply. The distribution of on-chain chips shows that 1.93 million bitcoins are concentrated in the $84,000 to $86,500 range. If the price stabilizes at $85,000, about 760,000 will turn into unrealized profits, accounting for more than 75% of profits. This is usually a historical precursor to a long-term bull market.
Short-term technical support is being tested by macro variables, and Bitget Wallet predicts an immediate support range of $81,500 to $83,000. Whether prices can stabilize here will depend critically on 10-year US Treasury yield trends and whether a continuous net ETF outflow is avoided until early October. This is a key point in the market seeking a new balance between spot demand and macro-liquidity following the end of the rebound in the third quarter.