According to Woofun AI, the Bitcoin price has substantially broken through the $85,000 key resistance level that has suppressed the market for a long time, and the market's eyes immediately turned to the $100,000 integer mark. The bulls are trying to push the price above $90,000 as sellers' liquidity dries up significantly and a rare fund-raising pattern resurfaces.
This breakthrough at the technical level is not an isolated event; it is the result of a combination of improvements in the microstructure of the chain, the return of institutional valuation anchors, and a shift in macroeconomic policy expectations. Although the front side still faces the risk of historically overvalued regions and potential leveraged liquidation, current market momentum has shown a strong intention to expand into a higher price range.
Notably, the elimination of the $85,000 selling pressure barrier marked a fundamental reversal in the supply and demand relationship in the market, laying a new foundation for the subsequent price discovery process.
Judging from the on-chain microstructure, the dissipation of selling pressure and the concentration of fund-raising behavior are the core driving forces behind this round of rebound. On October 2, Bitcoin hit an intraday high of $87,000 after buyers successfully penetrated the selling pressure barrier of around $85,000, which had failed many previous attempts. Glassnode's analysis indicates that some of the selling orders originally piled up in the region have been sold, while the rest have been voluntarily withdrawn, causing the concentration of selling pressure around $87,000 to drop drastically, and the liquidity in the area above it has become less obvious.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant's Bitcoin fund-raising trend chart is characterized by a sharp contraction in the fluctuation range. This pattern is extremely rare in history, yet it reproduces the trend before the two sharp rises in 2025. Woofun AI collates data and shows that the fund-raising trend chart reflects whether supply is being absorbed or distributed by tracking the trading behavior of different groups of holders. The first contraction occurred between April 17 and 20, 2025, when Bitcoin traded around $84,000 and then climbed to around $109,000; the second contraction occurred between March 5 and 8, followed by a rise in price.
Although this phenomenon has occurred infrequently and is not sufficient as an infallible predictive tool, combined with the current improvement in overall market conditions, this recent contraction is particularly noteworthy. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost further pointed out that those who bought Bitcoin 18 months to 2 years ago had an average cost benchmark of about $88,350; while holders who bought 6 to 12 months ago, the average cost basis guideline was around $89,200 and had been in a state of loss for almost a year. As prices approach these cost lines, some investors may choose to sell when they are close to break-even, while others may continue to hold or increase positions to lower average costs. Whether buyers can effectively absorb this portion of backflow supply will determine whether the rebound can continue above $90,000.
At the institutional valuation level, the cost benchmark data provided by Bitwise provides a clear reference coordinate for the market. Bitwise said this week that Bitcoin has returned to its key cost benchmark levels for judging changes in risk appetite, including a short-term holders' cost benchmark of around $73,000, a true market average cost benchmark of around $77,000, and an estimated average cost benchmark for spot ETF investors of around $83,000. After Bitcoin broke through the actual cost range for short-term holders of $85,000, the market entered a distribution area where profits have historically been difficult to sustain. Bitwise believes that the next reference level for short-term holders is around $90,000, which is 1.5 standard deviations higher than the actual cost; the next two standard deviation levels are around $95,000. In its historical data, Bitcoin only traded above these two thresholds for around 3.8% and 1.7% of the day.
Furthermore, the Fibonacci analytical framework used by Bitwise indicates levels around $92,000 and $100,000, further increasing the intensity of technical and on-chain metrics within the region. As a result, Bitwise defines the $90,000 to $100,000 range as the next area where multiple structural reference points converge, which means that this range is not only a price target, but also a critical area for intense competition between long and short.
The layout of the derivatives market also confirms bullish expectations in the $90,000-$100,000 range. Deribit's data shows that around $2.1 billion of Bitcoin call options are concentrated at the $90,000 execution price level, $2.4 billion is concentrated at the $95,000 level, and another $1.8 billion is concentrated at the $100,000 level.
This concentrated distribution of call options indicates that there is strong bullish demand in the market as prices approach these execution prices. Although the impact of these options on the spot market depends on the expiration date and the trader's hedging operations, the multi-billion dollar investment has clearly supported the price to enter this range.
Meanwhile, speculative positions are re-accumulating. The size of Bitcoin's open positions dropped to around $52 billion at the end of September, but it had recovered to around $56.2 billion in the first two days of October. This increase of around $4.2 billion corresponds exactly to the rise in the price of Bitcoin from around $83,500 to a brief period of over $87,000.
This rebound indicates that traders are re-establishing their positions after cutting their positions at the end of September. Although the increase in the size of open positions means that new positions follow the price increase, it is impossible to determine the direction of long/short based on this indicator alone. However, open positions at the end of September, which were at their lowest level of the year, left room for a resurgence of speculative activity, so prices did not have to immediately return to extreme levels.
However, rising financing costs make it more difficult to maintain long positions. If the rebound is reversed, these leveraged positions will face greater risk of liquidation.
The improvement in the macro environment provided an additional catalyst for Bitcoin's rise. According to US employment data released on Friday, the number of new jobs in September was only 29,000, far lower than economists' estimate of 90,000; the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, and wage growth data for August was also lowered. This weak data lowered market expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates again at the October meeting, leading to a decline in US Treasury yields and a rise in the stock market. The probability of an October rate hike has dropped below 20%, which removes an immediate threat from Bitcoin's rise.
However, the tougher test still lies within the cryptocurrency market. If Bitcoin continues to break above $90,000, it will enter an area where Bitwise believes it is already at a high level compared to recent investor cost benchmarks. Once the price reaches $95,000, it will enter an area that has been touched in less than 2% of the company's data sample, where buyers will have to deal with both returning holders' supply and increasingly expensive leveraged positions. If it fails to break through, the market's attention will once again turn to $83,000, as Bitwise believes this is the average cost benchmark for ETF investors and the first significant drop point the bulls need to defend against.