Cui Dongshu published an article saying that the worst drop in global automobile stock market values in September were new forces and cross-border car builders. Tesla is supported by AI and FSD, and its market capitalization is still $9.4 trillion. However, domestic car companies have all declined: BYD, Geely, and Great Wall fell 31% year over year, while mobile phone car companies such as Xiaomi and Cyrus fell by 59%. The new forces are more aggressive, down 58% year over year. The reason behind this is that profits are being squeezed at both ends. The auto industry's profit in August looked like it had recovered a bit from month to month, but the cumulative drop in the previous eight months was 17%. Prices of upstream materials such as chips and non-ferrous metals have risen, and downstream are fighting another price war, making it uncomfortable for car companies to be caught in the middle. Commercial vehicles, however, are an exception. Relying on subsidies and trade-in policies, it was much more resistant to decline than passenger cars, down only 7% year over year. This shows that the market is not a one-size-fits-all car stock market. There is a segmented circuit with a clear incremental logic; everyone is still willing to pay for it. To put it bluntly, the current capital market is quite pessimistic about the consumer side. Sales volume and transformation results have become the core pricing logic, and companies with strong new energy and exports are clearly more popular.

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