The Zhitong Finance App learned that in the third quarter of 2026, under the combined effects of the restructuring of the “828 New Deal” system and the adjustment of market expectations, the second-hand transaction structure continued to differentiate, the share of second-hand housing in housing transactions in key cities further increased, and the “second-hand housing dominance” pattern continued to strengthen. Judging from the total transaction volume, the total volume of second-hand residential transactions remained high in the third quarter. The total area of first-hand housing transactions in 20 key cities in the third quarter was about 64.04 million square meters, down 20.6% from the previous month; compared with the scale of about 62.92 million square meters in the same period last year, there was still a slight increase of 1.8% over the same period last year. The cumulative turnover in the first three quarters was about 204.5 million square meters, a slight increase of 0.4% over the previous year. The total volume was basically the same as the same period last year.
01 Overall Overview: Second-hand differentiation continues, and the dominant position of second-hand housing is further strengthened
Judging from transaction performance, new housing transactions in the third quarter were 1.73 million square meters, down 28.0% from the previous year, down 7.8% year on year. The cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters was 65.45 million square meters, down 10.5% year on year; during the same period, second-hand housing transactions were 44.31 million square meters, down 16.8% month on month, but still up 6.7% year on year. The cumulative sales volume for the first three quarters was 13.9.06 million square meters, up 6.5% year on year. The month-on-month decline in second-hand housing was 11.2 percentage points smaller than that of new housing, and 14.5 percentage points higher than that of new housing. Second-hand housing transaction performance was clearly superior to that of new housing.
Figure 1 Trends in the transaction area of second-hand housing in 20 key cities from January 2023 to September 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
Note: The 20 key cities include Beijing, Chengdu, Dalian, Dongguan, Foshan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Huizhou, Nanjing, Ningbo, Qingdao, Xiamen, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Suzhou, Tianjin, Wuhan, Xi'an, Yangzhou, and Chongqing, which are of the same caliber as second-hand housing.
Judging from the transaction structure, the share of second-hand transactions continues to rise. The share of second-hand housing in total second-hand transaction area rose from 47.2% in the first quarter of 2023 to 69.2% in the third quarter; the cumulative share of 68.0% in the first three quarters was 68.0%, up 3.9 percentage points from the same period last year (64.1%). The monthly share in the third quarter stabilized at around 69%. The volume of second-hand housing transactions was about 2.2 times that of new housing, and the dominant position was further solidified.
Figure 2 Monthly changes in the share of a second-hand residential transaction area in 20 key cities from January 2023 to September 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
Looking at energy levels, the differentiation between the first tier and the second and third tier has further deepened, and total stability is mainly contributed by first-tier cities. In the third quarter, first-tier cities sold a total of 18.13 million square meters, down 16.6% month-on-month but increased 7.2% year-on-year, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 3.1% in the first three quarters; total transactions in second- and third-tier cities were 45.91 million square meters, down 22.1% month-on-month and basically the same (-0.2%) year on year. The cumulative year-on-year decline in the first three quarters was 0.7% year-on-year. The resilience and stability of first-tier city transactions stems from the comparative advantages of the demand base, supply structure, and price adjustment process, forming a key support for the total volume platform.
02 Newly built commercial housing market: supply is actively cleared, transactions are bottoming out and diversification
Supply: Volume was concentrated at the end of the third quarter, but it still fell 6.0% month-on-month, and the trend of supply contraction remained unchanged
The contraction on the supply side deepened further in the third quarter. According to CRIC monitoring, 50 typical cities across the country added a total of 75.53 million square meters of supply in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points over the first half of the year. In absolute terms, it is only about 47% of the same period in 2023, and supply contraction is still at an all-time high. On a quarterly basis, supply of 19.04 million square meters in the first quarter, rebounded to 29.11 million square meters in the second quarter, and fell back to 27.38 million square meters in the third quarter, down 6.0% month-on-month and 20.4% year-on-year. The year-on-year decline in the first three quarters was more than 20%, and the trend of supply contraction remained unchanged.
Judging from monthly trends, January-February was affected by the combination of the Spring Festival holiday and weak market expectations. Supply was at the bottom of the year, with a single month of less than 6 million square meters; in March, the seasonal volume was 9.12 million square meters, and further rose to 11.39 million square meters in April, forming the first supply peak in the year; after a brief decline in May, it rebounded again to 10.16 million square meters in June. Entering the third quarter, supply declined in July-August, with 6.98 million square meters in July and 6.72 million square meters in August, all low levels during the year, with year-on-year declines of 23.5% and 25.7% respectively; in September, driven by the “Golden Nine” push window, centralized supply volume reached 13.68 million square meters, a sharp increase of 103.6% month-on-month, a month-on-month high, but still fell 15.7% year over year. Overall, supply in the first three quarters was characterized by “starting low in the first quarter, rushing back high in the second quarter, and holding back up in the third quarter”. The pace of housing companies' push was clearly concentrated in a few nodes.
Figure 3 Monthly supply of newly built commercial housing in 50 typical cities across the country from January 2023 to September 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
Note: The 50 representative cities include Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Suzhou, Wuhan, Xi'an, Nanjing, Changsha, Tianjin, Zhengzhou, Dongguan, Qingdao, Ningbo, Hefei, Foshan, Shenyang, Wuxi, Jinan, Xiamen, Fuzhou, Wenzhou, Changchun, Harbin, Nanning, Changzhou, Nanchang, Nantong, Zhuhai, Huizhou, Xuzhou, Zhongshan, Lanzhou, Dalian, Dongying, Huainan, Kundeshan, Lhasa, Shantou, Xining, Yangzhou, Yuncheng, Zhangzhou, Zhaoqing, Zhenjiang, Zibo, the same as below.
Looking at energy levels, supply at all energy levels declined year-on-year in the third quarter, with second-tier cities falling the deepest.
The four first-tier cities supplied 4.74 million square meters in the third quarter, up 7.1% month-on-month and down 15.7% year-on-year. The cumulative supply for the first three quarters was 11.94 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.1%. Supply in Shanghai and Shenzhen was slightly weak in the third quarter, falling in line with the same period; Beijing and Guangzhou concentrated volumes, with a month-on-month increase of more than 20%, but the cumulative year-on-year decline in the first three quarters was still above 25%.
The 23 second-tier cities supplied 16.35 million square meters in the third quarter, down 12.4% month-on-month and 24.6% year-on-year. The cumulative supply for the first three quarters was 46.11 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.4%. Looking at the performance of cities in the third quarter, only the four cities of Nanjing (+33.0%), Fuzhou (+36.5%), Suzhou (+21.0%), and Wuhan (+15.8%) achieved positive year-on-year growth, while cities such as Zhengzhou (-74.3%), Jinan (-70.3%), Chongqing (-56.9%), and Qingdao (-50.4%) fell by more than 50%, and the differentiation between cities intensified.
The 23 third- and fourth-tier cities supplied 6.28 million square meters in the third quarter, up 4.3% month-on-month and down 11.2% year-on-year. The cumulative supply for the first three quarters was 17.48 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%. Cities such as Zhuhai (+114.6%), Nantong (+47.4%), and Dongying (+28.9%) have significant volumes, but the absolute scale of most cities is still at a historically low level.
Table 1 Supply of energy-graded newly built commercial housing in 50 typical cities in the third quarter and first three quarters of 2026 (unit: 10,000 square meters)
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
Transactions: The third quarter fell 26.3% month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year decline in the first three quarters was 11.1%. “Golden Nine” was not successful
In the third quarter of 2026, overall new housing transactions continued to bottom out. According to CRIC monitoring, new commercial residential sales in 50 cities were 31.36 million square meters in the third quarter, a decrease of 26.3% month-on-month and 10.6% year-on-year, and a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 11.1% in the first three quarters. Looking at quarterly momentum, the first quarter was disrupted by the Spring Festival and low base, with a year-on-year decrease of 24.2%; in the second quarter, thanks to the cumulative effect of policies and the release of demand in some core cities, the transaction area rebounded to 42.53 million square meters, up 41.7% month-on-month, and remained basically flat (+0.9%); entering the third quarter, the market moved into a seasonal low season, and the transaction area fell back to 31.36 million square meters, down 26.3% from the previous year, down 10.6% year on year.
Judging from the changing trend, sales of 11.2 million square meters in July were the highest in the third quarter. In August, it fell back to 9.96 million square meters, and rose slightly to 10.2 million square meters in September due to the dual effects of the implementation of the New Deal and “Golden Nine” marketing. The year-on-year increase was 2.4%, but the year-on-year decline widened to 20.1%. The “Golden Nine” was clearly insufficient.
Figure 4 Monthly sales of newly built commercial housing in 50 typical cities across the country from January 2023 to September 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
Looking at energy levels, transactions declined month-on-month in the third quarter, and only some cities maintained positive growth.
First-tier cities are the only tier to achieve positive year-on-year growth, confirming the relative resilience of demand with “cities with minimal decline and maximum positive growth.” The four first-tier cities traded 5.04 million square meters in the third quarter, down 23.6% month-on-month and up 4.9% year-on-year. The first three quarters accumulated 15.77 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%, the smallest decline of any energy level. Judging from the performance of various cities in the third quarter, Shenzhen (+22.2%) and Beijing (+13.9%) achieved positive year-on-year growth, which was clearly supported by concentrated release of improved demand; Guangzhou (-4.5%) and Shanghai (-1.4%) declined slightly year-on-year.
Second-tier cities are under pressure as a whole, and the performance of single cities is uneven. The 23 second-tier cities traded 18.73 million square meters in the third quarter, down 26.9% month-on-month and 13.8% year-on-year. Cumulative transactions in the first three quarters were 62.28 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%. Looking at the performance of cities in the third quarter, with the exception of cities such as Shenyang (+11.9%), Suzhou (+17.4%), Xiamen (+13.2%), and Fuzhou (+29.0%), most cities were under pressure, and cities such as Changsha (-56.5%), Hangzhou (-27.9%), Chengdu (-27.9%), Qingdao (-28.7%), and Jinan (-34.2%) had the highest year-on-year declines.
Third- and fourth-tier cities traded 7.59 million square meters in the third quarter, down 26.4% month-on-month and 11.4% year-on-year. The decline increased from the first half of the year, and demand continued to weaken. The cumulative decline was 25.86 million square meters in the first three quarters, down 6.0% year on year. The cumulative decline was less than that of the second tier. Looking at the performance of various cities in the third quarter, cities such as Kunshan (+84.6%), Shantou (+15.8%), Xining (+11.2%), and Zhongshan (+5.1%) bucked the year-on-year trend. The common denominator was that demand was compensated under a low base, but the absolute scale was still limited.
Table 2. Sales of energy-graded newly built commercial housing in 50 typical cities in the third quarter and first three quarters of 2026 (unit: 10,000 square meters)
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
Judging from the transaction structure, improved demand support continues, and the trend of product upgrades is clear. From January to September 2026 (cumulative caliber), small units under 90 square meters accounted for only 18.5% of transactions, down 3.3 percentage points from 2023; 110-130 square meters of newly renovated units accounted for 26.3%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points; large units above 150 square meters accounted for 13.6%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points, and the structural center of gravity continued to move upward. This structural upward trend is not only the result of supply adaptation under the guidance of the “good house” policy, but also means that effective demand for new housing is being concentrated on the improvement side at an accelerated pace; new policies such as the 40-year increase in the maximum loan limit and debt-to-income ratio have further lowered the threshold for improving housing exchanges, and “total volume reduction and structural improvement” have become the main tone of the market.
Looking at specific cities, from January to September 2026, cities such as Hangzhou (31.1%), Suzhou (30.4%), and Ningbo (26.5%) accounted for more than 25% of transactions of 150 square meters or more, of which cities such as Hangzhou and Suzhou have already exceeded 30%. Compared with the same period in 2025, 35 of the 50 representative cities showed an increase in the share of new housing transactions of 150 square meters or more. Among them, cities such as Suzhou, Hangzhou, and Nanchang increased by more than 5 percentage points; Shanghai (+2.0 percentage points), Guangzhou (+1.3 percentage points), and Shenzhen (+2.8 percentage points) increased simultaneously, and improved demand has become the main support for new housing transactions in core cities.
Figure 5 Percentage of newly built commercial residential units sold in each area of 50 typical cities across the country in the first three quarters of 2023-2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
Price: The overall rise in the third quarter was 6.5% year-on-year. The first tier is still the only declining energy level. Structural factors dominated the rise and fall
Judging from the average transaction price of newly built commercial residential homes in the 50 cities in the third quarter of 2026 as monitored by CRIC, the overall average transaction price in the 50 cities was 2,662 yuan/square meter, up 6.5% year on year, but still down 1.1% from month to month. Looking at energy levels, the average price for first-tier cities was 55,218 yuan/square meter in the third quarter, down 0.5% from the previous year, and 1.6% year-on-year, the only energy level with a year-on-year decline; second-tier cities were 17,637 yuan/square meter, down 3.4% from the previous month but up 4.7% year on year; third- and fourth-tier cities were 13,421 yuan/square meter, down 1.5% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year. The average price recovery was due more to the inclination of transaction structures towards middle- and high-end projects rather than the general rise in prices themselves.
Table 3 Average commercial residential transaction prices in energy level cities in the third quarter of 2026 (unit: yuan/square meter)
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
Judging from the monthly price trend, the average price in first-tier cities fell from a high level in the third quarter of 2026, and the average price trend in second-tier, third-tier and fourth-tier cities was relatively stable. Among them, the average transaction price in first-tier cities in September was 5,2441 yuan/square meter, down 4.6% from the beginning of the year; the average transaction price in second-tier cities was 17,254 yuan/square meter, up 1.7% from the beginning of the year; and the average transaction price in third- and fourth-tier cities was 1,3021 yuan/square meter, down 8.4% from the beginning of the year. Overall, the characteristics of “steady and moderate differentiation” of prices in the third quarter continued. First-tier cities fluctuated the most due to the pace of entry of high-end projects into the market, while third- and fourth-tier cities fluctuated in a narrow range at low levels under the “price for volume” strategy.
Figure 6 Transaction price trends for energy-level newly built commercial housing in 50 typical cities across the country from January 2023 to September 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
Judging from city performance, out of 50 typical cities, there were 25 cities where the average transaction price rose year on year in the third quarter, 10 cities where the average transaction price was basically the same (within the ± 2% range) year on year, and a total of 15 cities fell. The number of rising cities has clearly surpassed that of falling cities, but the distribution of ups and downs is still scattered, and the structural characteristics of price changes are still prominent.
Figure 7. Year-on-year performance of newly built commercial housing transaction prices in 50 typical cities across the country in the third quarter of 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
Specifically, the top 10 cities with average transaction prices are still dominated by first-tier and second-tier cities. Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing steadily ranked in the top three, while Hangzhou, Xiamen, and Guangzhou ranked in the top ten core cities in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. Among them, Shanghai took the lead with 7,6,744 yuan/square meter, up 3.7% from the previous month, but still fell 7.6% year on year. Among the top 10 month-on-month price ratios, Zibo (13.7%), Changsha (13.3%), and Qingdao (13.0%) ranked in the top three. Third-tier and weaker second-tier cities such as Shenyang, Changzhou, Zhongshan, Dongguan, and Xuzhou increased more than 5% month-on-month, while cities such as Fuzhou (-13.9%), Zhenjiang (-10.5%), and Guangzhou (-9.4%) had the highest month-on-month price marginal trends. Prices were significantly differentiated from the TOP10 cities, with Dongying leading the year-on-year increase of 31.1%, followed by Qingdao (26.7%), Hangzhou (20.4%), Changsha (18.0%), and Zhaoqing (15.0%), and the share of third-tier, fourth-tier and weaker second-tier cities increased markedly. The high year-on-year increase was still due to low base and single-project centralized transactions; in contrast, the price adjustment pressure for cities such as Xi'an (-16.0%), Fuzhou (-11.2%), and Zhengzhou (-10.4%) fell by more than 10% year on year. It's still big.
Table 4 Top 10 cities with average commercial residential transaction prices and price increases in the third quarter of 2026 (unit: yuan/square meter)
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
Inventory and removal: Total safety and structural imbalance coexist, and the removal cycle rises to 26.9 months
In the third quarter of 2026, against the backdrop of continued contraction in supply, the total inventory of commercial housing in the narrow sense of 50 typical cities across the country fell to 302 million square meters, a cumulative decrease of about 19.7% from about 376 million square meters in early 2023. The overall inventory scale has fallen back to a three-year low. However, it is worth noting that inventory at the end of September increased by 0.04% compared to the end of June, and the year-on-year decline remained around 6.7%, which is basically the same as at the end of June. Inventory removal has entered a phased platform period. This means that “production based on sales” has indeed acted as a buffer, and total inventory is no longer the main risk. However, due to the overall low transaction scale, the removal cycle did not decline but increased, reaching a phased high point. Inventory pressure has shifted from “total volume” to “removal efficiency,” and regional structural liquidity risks are still accumulating.
Inventory: Inventory in the narrow sense has entered a low-level platform period, and second-tier cities are still the core carrying areas for inventory removal
Since 2026, inventory in the narrow sense of key cities has continued to be in the elimination channel. As of the end of September 2026, the total inventory of commercial housing in the narrow sense of the word in 50 typical cities across the country was about 302.21 million square meters, a slight increase of 0.04% from the end of June, and still a year-on-year decrease of about 6.7%. Inventory rebounded 1.2% month-on-month in September, ending the previous month-on-month decline. The reason for this is that housing enterprises concentrated their sales in the “Golden Nine” window. Supply surged 103.6% month-on-month in September, clearly exceeding the transaction increase during the same period, and short-term inventory was passively recovered; however, over a longer period of time, the prudent management strategy of “determining production by sales” was still deepening. The overall supply contraction was greater than the transaction adjustment, and total inventory volume was still in a downward channel year on year.
Looking at energy levels, the inventories of cities at all energy levels rebounded slightly month-on-month in September. The first tier, second tier, and tier three and four tier rose by 2.3%, 1.1%, and 0.8% respectively, with first-tier increases leading. On a year-on-year basis, the inventory scale of second-tier, third-tier and fourth-tier cities decreased by 7.6% and 6.6%, respectively, compared with the same period last year, with remarkable results; inventory in first-tier cities fell 3.0% year on year, the smallest drop among the three energy levels.
Figure 8 Changes in the narrow sense of commercial housing inventory in 50 typical cities across the country from January 2023 to September 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
Specifically, internal inventory trends in first-tier cities are divided. Guangzhou (-7.2%) and Beijing (-5.2%) showed significant supply-side contraction, compounded by improved demand support on the trading side. Inventory size both declined year on year. Among them, Guangzhou's inventory still reached 16.12 million square meters, the highest among the four cities. Inventories in Shanghai and Shenzhen are still on the upward channel year on year. The increase in Shenzhen reached 7.0%. Under the simultaneous contraction of supply and demand, inventories have not been effectively removed, and there is a slight backlog of inventory; Shanghai's inventory is basically flat year over year.
The overall inventory of second-tier cities showed a downward trend, and there were significant differences in stock volume between cities. Chengdu (23.98 million square meters), Shenyang (15.46 million square meters), and Wuhan (14.03 million square meters) ranked in the top 3 inventories at the end of September. The three cities totaled 53.47 million square meters, accounting for about 29.4% of the total inventory volume of second-tier cities. On a year-on-year basis, inventory in 17 of the 23 second-tier cities was in a declining channel. The decline in inventory in most cities was mainly due to the contraction in supply exceeding the decline in transactions, such as Dalian (-48.3%), Changchun (-28.3%), Zhengzhou (-27.2%), Hefei (-20.0%), etc., with outstanding inventory removal results; only Chengdu (+8.8%), Jinan (+8.2%), Fuzhou (+8.8%), Suzhou (+6.5%), and Xi'an (+6.0%) As a result, inventories showed positive year-on-year growth.
Third- and fourth-tier cities continue to remove inventory, but “low total volume” and “high backlog” coexist. Inventories in over 80% of cities declined year on year, and the overall backlog situation continued to improve compared to the same period last year. Inventories in Wenzhou (-24.4%), Changzhou (-17.0%), Nantong (-16.8%), and Xuzhou (-14.2%) had the highest year-on-year decline, and inventory removal accelerated. However, absolute inventories in cities such as Foshan, Shantou, Zibo, Zhuhai, and Xuzhou are still high, and pressure to remove them is high. In Dongguan (+28.4%) and Huainan (+3.3%) alone, inventory levels rose year-on-year. Among them, inventory in Dongguan increased by nearly 30%, mainly due to supply growth rates far exceeding transactions, and passive increases in inventory.
Figure 9 Narrow inventory and year-on-year changes in 50 typical cities across the country at the end of September 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
Note: Some cities are calculated based on inventory area at the end of September = inventory area at the end of August+September supply-September transaction
Elimination: The decontamination cycle rose to 26.9 months. Weak second-tier and third-fourth tier are risk concentration areas
Along with concentrated supply volume at the end of the third quarter, by the end of September 2026, the commercial residential removal cycle in 50 typical cities had risen to 26.9 months, 0.6 months longer than the end of June. In terms of energy levels, the removal cycle for first-tier cities is 24.7 months, slightly shorter than the end of June; 25.5 months for second-tier cities and 32.4 months for third-tier and fourth-tier cities, which are 0.9 months and 0.5 months longer, respectively, compared to the end of June. The pressure on the removal of third- and fourth-tier cities is most prominent.
Figure 10 Changes in the inventory removal cycle of commercial housing in 50 typical cities across the country from January 2023 to September 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
Note: Removal cycle = inventory area/average monthly removal in the past 12 months
Specifically, Shenzhen's removal cycle was 22.9 months, with a year-on-year increase of 46.2%. The absolute level was at a phased high level, and inventory pressure continued to accumulate; Shanghai's removal cycle was 18.8 months, a year-on-year increase of 36.5%, mainly affected by the reduction in transaction scale, but the absolute level was still the lowest among the four first-tier cities. The Beijing (30.5 months) and Guangzhou (25.9 months) removal cycles increased by 7.5% and 5.8%, respectively. Although the inventory scale declined year on year, due to the overall transaction scale, the removal cycle remained running at a high level, and inventory risks have not been fundamentally mitigated.
Second-tier cities have clearly stratified risks in the decontamination cycle, and the differentiation between core and weak second-tier performance has intensified. By the end of September, weak second-tier cities such as Dalian (69.3 months), Harbin (64.6 months), and Shenyang (58.2 months) had a removal cycle exceeding 56 months, significantly higher than the reasonable removal range, and the risk of inventory backlog was outstanding; in response, cities such as Chongqing (11.0 months), Hangzhou (11.3 months), Hefei (11.6 months), and Nanchang (13.7 months) had a relatively balanced supply and demand. Judging from the year-on-year changes, the third quarter was accompanied by a decline in transactions. The removal cycle in most cities widened year on year. Cities such as Chengdu (+93.4%), Suzhou (+58.4%), Lanzhou (+41.8%), Hangzhou (+40.8%), and Jinan (+37.6%) had the highest year-on-year increase in depletion pressure; only cities such as Dalian (-30.8%) and Changchun (-11.3%) benefited from sharp inventory clearance and a shorter year-on-year removal cycle. Overall, the pressure to eliminate second-tier cities has generally increased compared to the same period last year.
The overall inventory situation in third- and fourth-tier cities is serious. Seven cities, including Zhuhai (53.9 months), Jingdezhen (52.4 months), Xining (51.2 months), Dongguan (46.7 months), Shantou (46.7 months), Kunshan (40.4 months), and Yuncheng (40.1 months), have a decontamination cycle of more than 40 months. Even if supply does not increase, it will still take more than 3 years to remove. On a year-on-year basis, the pressure on elimination in most cities increased compared to the same period last year. Cities such as Xining (+70.4%), Dongguan (+53.7%), Zhuhai (+37.8%), and Jingdezhen (+34.5%) had the highest year-on-year increase; only a few cities such as Nantong (-23.7%), Zibo (-13.2%), Kunshan (-12.1%), and Xuzhou (-11.2%) have eased.
Figure 11 Demolition cycles and year-on-year changes in 50 typical cities across the country at the end of September 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
03 Second-hand housing market: third quarter sales still increased 6.7% year on year, significantly better resilience than new homes
In contrast to the continuous contraction and adjustment of the new housing market, the second-hand housing market showed strong resilience in the third quarter, and the transaction scale remained high under the main “price for volume” trend. In terms of total volume, second-hand residential transactions in 20 cities in the third quarter were 44.31 million square meters, down 16.8% from the second quarter, but the year-on-year increase was 6.7%. The cumulative sales volume for the first three quarters was 139.06 million square meters, an increase of 6.5% over the previous year, maintaining a record high for nearly four years.
Figure 12 Second-hand housing transaction trends in 20 key cities across the country in the first three quarters of 2023-2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
Judging from transaction trends, second-hand housing transactions declined after peaking in the second quarter, but the resilience was significantly superior to that of new homes. On a monthly basis, second-hand homes in 20 cities sold 15.77 million square meters in July, fell further to 14.43 million square meters in August, and fell slightly to 14.11 million square meters in September. However, the year-on-year increase was still 3.1%, and the month-on-month decline narrowed to 2.2%, showing significant relative resilience.
Figure 13 Second-hand housing transaction area and month-on-month ratio in 20 key cities across the country from January 2023 to September 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
Looking at energy levels, first-tier cities traded 1.39 million square meters in the third quarter, down 13.5% from the previous month and up 8.0% from the previous year. The cumulative sales volume for the first three quarters was 40.66 million square meters, an increase of 5.7% over the previous year. Second- and third-tier cities traded 31.22 million square meters in the third quarter, down 18.2% from the previous month and up 6.2% year on year. The cumulative sales volume for the first three quarters was 98.4 million square meters, up 6.8% year on year. The year-on-year growth rate of the first tier in the third quarter overtook that of the second and third tier by 1.8 percentage points. The month-on-month decline was also 4.7 percentage points smaller, and the short-term momentum of first-tier cities was stronger.
Looking at specific cities, Shanghai and Chengdu led the scale, with sales of more than 4.5 million square meters in the third quarter. Judging from transaction performance, transactions in various energy level cities declined month-on-month in the third quarter. Ningbo alone maintained positive growth. Among them, Dalian, Hangzhou, and Xiamen had the highest declines, reaching more than 25%. On a year-on-year basis, Shanghai, Suzhou, Ningbo, and Dongguan increased by more than 20%. In the first three quarters, 16 of the 20 cities had cumulative positive year-on-year growth, with cities such as Shanghai (+13.9%), Yangzhou (+24.4%), Suzhou (+19.8%), Huizhou (+19.0%), and Dongguan (+17.6%) having the highest growth rates.
Table 5 Energy-grade second-hand housing turnover in 20 key cities in the third quarter and first three quarters of 2026 (unit: 10,000 square meters)
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
04 Fourth quarter outlook
The supply of new homes: there is a general trend of no change in sales volume at the end of the quarter, and core cities are still the focus of promotion
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the supply of new homes is expected to remain low, but there is a possibility that volume will be concentrated at the end of the year. Judging from the trend in the third quarter, supply fell continuously to a low level during the year in July-August. In September, the “Golden Nine” window drove a sharp increase of 103.6% month-on-month to 13.68 million square meters, a monthly high of 13.68 million square meters, indicating that the pace of housing companies' promotion is highly dependent on a small number of sales nodes rather than a systematic restoration of market confidence. Supply is expected to remain at a high level in October-December; however, the cumulative year-on-year base market for the first three quarters was -21.2%, making it difficult for supply to reverse trend in the fourth quarter. The restrictions on the value of sellable goods in 2027 have been transmitted to the beginning of construction. The 828 New Deal establishes the institutional direction of existing housing sales. It is expected that supply in the fourth quarter will still be dominated by “fixing production with sales”. The year-on-year supply will drop or remain around -20% year-on-year. The transmission of the New Deal on the supply rhythm is expected to gradually deepen in 2027.
Looking at each city, core cities are still the focus of the promotion. Cities with low removal pressure, such as Hangzhou (11.6 months), Nanchang (13.7 months), and Chongqing (11.0 months), are expected to maintain their enthusiasm for promotion in the fourth quarter. New supply is mainly based on high-quality locations and high-quality “good house” projects; in cities with high inventories such as Zhengzhou, Tianjin, and Nanning, supply will shrink further, and the market focus will shift to inventory removal; the supply in third- and fourth-tier cities is likely to continue to be low, and some cities may experience supply cuts.
New housing transactions: stable at a low level, and the year-on-year decline is expected to remain stable
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, new housing transactions are expected to show the characteristics of “recovery in a weak season and a stable low overall level”. Overall transactions weakened in the third quarter, and the year-on-year decline in September widened to 20.1%, and market momentum has reached a low level; in the fourth quarter, transactions are expected to pick up in stages, driven by supply volume, year-end promotions, and favorable demand for new policies such as 40 years of individual loans and down payment optimization. The narrow base for the fourth quarter of 2025 will also help narrow the year-on-year decline. The year-on-year decline in new housing transactions is expected to close to -10%.
At the urban level, the structural differentiation of “hot spots and cold faces” will become more obvious: transactions in Beijing and Shenzhen are expected to remain relatively stable; Hangzhou, Chengdu or high level shocks; second-tier cities with better fundamentals, such as Guangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou, and Wuhan, still have a small amount of room; weak second-tier and most third-tier and fourth-tier cities will continue to bottom out.
New housing prices: total volume stabilizes but lacks momentum, structural differentiation continues
Looking at the short term (Q4 2026), new housing prices are expected to maintain a pattern of “total stabilization and structural differentiation”. The average transaction price of the 50 cities stabilized +1.0% year over year, mainly supported by second-tier improvement transactions. This structural support will continue in the fourth quarter: the average price of first-tier cities was supported by high-quality projects entering the market, but the share of low total price projects increased or led to a phased decline; hot second-tier improvement markets such as Hangzhou and Hefei were dominated by second-tier improvement markets, and the average price still had room to rise. The overall price adjustment for cities with strong removal pressure such as Xi'an and Nanning is still in the process of bottoming out; the overall price adjustment for third- and fourth-tier cities is still in the process of bottoming out, and the “exchange price for volume” strategy is still in the process of bottoming out. Continues until the end of the year.
In the medium term (2027 and beyond), an increase in the share of existing housing and quasi-existing housing projects will strengthen the authenticity of new housing prices and reduce the disturbance of “off-plan housing discounts” on statistical average prices. New housing prices may show a phased increase; at the same time, supply contraction and improved demand concentration may make core cities more resilient than weak cities, further solidifying price differentiation between cities.
Inventory and removal: Inventory continues to fluctuate slightly, and structural removal pressure will continue
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the risk point on the inventory side is a “race between supply volume and transaction repair.” While supply surged month-on-month in September, transactions only rebounded 2.4% month-on-month. Supply volumes were not simultaneously converted into transactions. At the end of September, inventory had already increased month-on-month, and the removal cycle had risen to 26.9 months. If the fourth quarter continues this “supply first, transaction lag” rhythm, additional supply may instead push up inventory recovery pressure, and there is a possibility that the removal cycle will break through 27 months; conversely, if seasonal repair of transactions exceeds expectations, inventory may return to decline. Overall, the total inventory volume will still fluctuate in a narrow range of around 300 million square meters, but structural elimination pressure will continue.
Second-hand housing transactions: consolidated at a high level, and the year-on-year growth is still expected to be positive
The second-hand housing market is expected to maintain its comparative advantage over newly built commercial housing in the fourth quarter, but the transaction scale may decline further from the third quarter. In terms of volume, second-hand housing transactions in the first three quarters were already at a high level in the same period in history. In September, sales of 14.11 million square meters were recorded in a single month, still up 3.1% from the previous year. The fourth quarter was a low season for traditional trading. Combined with the gradual release of backlog demand in the previous period, the volume may continue the month-on-month decline since the third quarter, but with the support of a low base, it is still expected to maintain positive year-on-year growth. Core cities, such as Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Tianjin, have a large initial demand base and relatively adequate price adjustments, and transaction activity is expected to remain high; in cities where there is a lot of early demand release, such as Suzhou and Yangzhou, the pressure to pull back on transactions is relatively greater.
Schedule 1 Average transaction price of energy-level newly built commercial housing in 50 typical cities across the country in the third quarter and first three quarters of 2026 (unit: yuan/square meter)
Schedule 2. Inventory and removal cycle of commercial housing in 50 typical cities across the country at the end of September 2026 (unit: 10,000 square meters, month)
